Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 416909 times)

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4455 on: December 01, 2021, 01:54:13 PM »
Everyone, please stop discussing things.
It has all been discussed.
I will remind as necessary.
We can discuss the reminders, though.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4456 on: December 01, 2021, 02:33:26 PM »
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Everyone, please stop discussing things.
It has all been discussed.
I will remind as necessary.
We can discuss the reminders, though.

Snowmman, if people would read the posts when they were originally done, we wouldn't have to repost the same information dozens of times.  This matter related to the times will resurface again within the next few months and we will have to go through the same thing again.
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4457 on: December 01, 2021, 02:56:53 PM »
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Everyone, please stop discussing things.
It has all been discussed.
I will remind as necessary.
We can discuss the reminders, though.

Snowmman, if people would read the posts when they were originally done, we wouldn't have to repost the same information dozens of times.  This matter related to the times will resurface again within the next few months and we will have to go through the same thing again.

Okay we will not repost the original material. All reposting of reminders about the reposting methodology are okay.
Since I am reminding relative to a repost about the repost methodology, this post is also covered by the relevant conventions.
 

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4458 on: December 01, 2021, 05:52:40 PM »
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377 wears 3 altimeters.
He never knows what altitude he's at...just picks the answer he likes best :)
That's the nice thing when there are multiple sources for the same data, you can just cherry pick the one you like best!


I jumped for years without any altimeter at all. I always know where I'm at. Because the planet doesn't lie.

-------

Q:  What do you call the altitude under an open reserve?

A:  A WASTE!
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4459 on: December 01, 2021, 06:43:22 PM »
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One of the controversial claims made by Dr. Edwards in his book is that the timing of the plot points on the FBI flight path map are wrong.

To prove this claim, he references the notes of George Harrison. Dr. Edwards concludes that there are six different authors of the notes. He labels them A through F. He states that Author F made the notation “23 DME PDX” which indicates that Flight 305 was 23 nautical miles south of what is now the Battleground VORTEC. Author F marks this as occurring at 8:18. Two other authors marked the same event, but put this time as 8:22.

Edwards examines the remaining notes and times and concludes that Author F was listening to the radio transmissions in real time and that their time of 8:18 was accurate while the other two authors were reading the teletype printout which had a 2 to 4 minute delay.

Calculating the flight speed and distance in reverse, now puts the 8:11 - 8:13 jump time and drop zone farther south over the Columbia River.

I also tried to do this same thing, but I was unable to square that circle and make it work. Dr. Edwards puts forward compelling evidence, but this is a significant aspect of the case and is only given two pages of explanation. For such an important detail about the case, I would have liked to have seen more elaboration on it.

Lastly, in order to forestall any attacks directed MY way, I am non-committal about Dr. Edwards conclusions regarding this. I’m intrigued by it, but I don’t have an opinion one way or another basically because I don’t know enough about it to hold an opinion. Any of you who are more knowledgeable want to chime in?

Chaucer, this has been discussed at length here for the last 10 years or so.  It is as simple as anything can be.  The airliner was at the 23 DME point at 8:18 PM and so reported that over the ARINC telephone patch that had been set up.  Not everyone at the NWA facility at SEATAC, where the Harrison papers originated, was on the telephone patch.

The ARINC telephone patch went through the same ARINC facility that routinely communicated with aircraft through a dedicated VHF radio frequency.  Routinely, the ARINC facility would then type up the communication and send it by teletype to subscribing stations.  In this instance, the phone patch permitted the people in SEATAC and elsewhere to also listen in on the communications between the ARINC station and the airliner. 

Nevertheless, the ARINC facility continued to prepare and transmit over the teletype system the essence of the communications it was receiving.  This required a few minutes to do and the 8:22 PM time at the bottom of the message was the time the ARINC teletype operator pushed the "send" button on his machine.

The people who were on the phone patch got the time as 8:18 PM when the information was actually transmitted and the people who were not on the phone patch got the time as 8:22 PM from the time at the bottom of the teletype printout.

There is no problem with these times.  There has never been a problem with these times.
Bob,
You seem to think that when an issue has been discussed, it is not worth discussing again. You also seem to think that because an issue has been discussed that any problems with it have been resolved.

I don't think either of those things are true - both in general and with this particular aspect.

23 nautical miles south of BTG VORTAC at 8:18 along the FBI flight path moves the believed jump time of 8:11 - 8:13. This is significant and requires further analysis, don't you agree?

Moreover, in looking at the plots (and yes, I know they aren't exact), it would appear that there is a plot missing between the plot just to the northeast of Vancouver and the plot just south of the I-5 bridge. The distance traveled would be nearly 6 miles - double the assumed speed of the plane.

So, it seems something doesn't add up here, and I'd like to know if Edwards is on to something or not.

Also, FWIW, Edwards is firmly an "FBI flight path guy", so you can't use these time as support for a WFP at least in regards to Edwards theories.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4460 on: December 02, 2021, 12:07:53 AM »
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One of the controversial claims made by Dr. Edwards in his book is that the timing of the plot points on the FBI flight path map are wrong.

To prove this claim, he references the notes of George Harrison. Dr. Edwards concludes that there are six different authors of the notes. He labels them A through F. He states that Author F made the notation “23 DME PDX” which indicates that Flight 305 was 23 nautical miles south of what is now the Battleground VORTEC. Author F marks this as occurring at 8:18. Two other authors marked the same event, but put this time as 8:22.

Edwards examines the remaining notes and times and concludes that Author F was listening to the radio transmissions in real time and that their time of 8:18 was accurate while the other two authors were reading the teletype printout which had a 2 to 4 minute delay.

Calculating the flight speed and distance in reverse, now puts the 8:11 - 8:13 jump time and drop zone farther south over the Columbia River.

I also tried to do this same thing, but I was unable to square that circle and make it work. Dr. Edwards puts forward compelling evidence, but this is a significant aspect of the case and is only given two pages of explanation. For such an important detail about the case, I would have liked to have seen more elaboration on it.

Lastly, in order to forestall any attacks directed MY way, I am non-committal about Dr. Edwards conclusions regarding this. I’m intrigued by it, but I don’t have an opinion one way or another basically because I don’t know enough about it to hold an opinion. Any of you who are more knowledgeable want to chime in?

Chaucer, this has been discussed at length here for the last 10 years or so.  It is as simple as anything can be.  The airliner was at the 23 DME point at 8:18 PM and so reported that over the ARINC telephone patch that had been set up.  Not everyone at the NWA facility at SEATAC, where the Harrison papers originated, was on the telephone patch.

The ARINC telephone patch went through the same ARINC facility that routinely communicated with aircraft through a dedicated VHF radio frequency.  Routinely, the ARINC facility would then type up the communication and send it by teletype to subscribing stations.  In this instance, the phone patch permitted the people in SEATAC and elsewhere to also listen in on the communications between the ARINC station and the airliner. 

Nevertheless, the ARINC facility continued to prepare and transmit over the teletype system the essence of the communications it was receiving.  This required a few minutes to do and the 8:22 PM time at the bottom of the message was the time the ARINC teletype operator pushed the "send" button on his machine.

The people who were on the phone patch got the time as 8:18 PM when the information was actually transmitted and the people who were not on the phone patch got the time as 8:22 PM from the time at the bottom of the teletype printout.

There is no problem with these times.  There has never been a problem with these times.
Bob,
You seem to think that when an issue has been discussed, it is not worth discussing again. You also seem to think that because an issue has been discussed that any problems with it have been resolved.

I don't think either of those things are true - both in general and with this particular aspect.

23 nautical miles south of BTG VORTAC at 8:18 along the FBI flight path moves the believed jump time of 8:11 - 8:13. This is significant and requires further analysis, don't you agree?

Moreover, in looking at the plots (and yes, I know they aren't exact), it would appear that there is a plot missing between the plot just to the northeast of Vancouver and the plot just south of the I-5 bridge. The distance traveled would be nearly 6 miles - double the assumed speed of the plane.

So, it seems something doesn't add up here, and I'd like to know if Edwards is on to something or not.

Also, FWIW, Edwards is firmly an "FBI flight path guy", so you can't use these time as support for a WFP at least in regards to Edwards theories.

Chaucer, to the best of my knowledge, Sluggo pointed out the problems with the times marked on the FBI flight path map sometime before 2009.  At least he was already aware of them when I first made contact with him in 2009.  The times marked on that FBI map do not have anything to do with the Western Flight Path but they do point out problems with the FBI flight path.

This series of posts started with a discussion of whether the airliner was at the 23 DME location at 8:18 PM or 8:22 PM.  I believe that you have indicated that Dr. Edwards went with the 8:18 PM time.  And the reason for selecting the 8:18 PM time rather than the 8:22 PM time has been thoroughly explained over the last 10 years.

The 8:18 PM time for the airliner to be at the 23 DME location is a valid data point.  There is nothing further to discuss with regards to it.
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4461 on: December 02, 2021, 01:12:48 AM »
I was looking at DZ.com to see what I posted/thought back in the day about flight path.
it's too bad some of the annotated attachments are gone from DZ.com, but I was exploring things like this:

June 8, 2008
all we need:
1) Wind from the East at Portland
2) 6 mile error in the hand drawn flight path
(more like tracking I5)
3) 3 mile canopy drift (I'm guessing based on the '72 map, at canopy drifts)

then minimal float/money movement needed.

The bump time estimate can be reasonably fudged to be around the BTG vortac as required for the above.

Shilapoo lake area is interesting. They're planning on doing restoration there...have been discussing plans for years. It used to flood a lot..They have dikes and pumps I believe. Farmland in some area now. A lot is state owned for wildlife sanctuary etc.

But it's nice and remote. Maybe soft ground. Good auger-in potential.
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4462 on: December 02, 2021, 01:14:34 AM »
And if you're going to focus on the extreme flood levels of 72 and 74
then talk about Vancouver Lake can be back in play

June 5, 2008

Vancouver Lake is interesting as a DZ if predicted jump near Vancouver.

Why: because it has huge surface area, almost rivaling the surface area of the Columbia, if you just include the 305 flight path crossing the Columbia area...
So it increases the probability of it being a money catcher/delivery system. (with water being the carrier)

It's also big enough to offset the lack of wind blowing to the west...i.e. money might land there, and get transported west by water.

There's also less distance for money to travel, compared to the long way on the Columbia, from the 305 crossing Columbia area.

See attached pic from Google Earth, showing Vancouver Lake and the money location.

The only problem is there is one? water channel out of Vancouver Lake now, and it's to the north, north of the money site. (you can see white water there even)

But what about 1971?

That cleared farm land between Vancouver Lake and the money site is called Shilapoo Lake.

The houseboat guy said:
"don't know much about Shillapoo lake, other than the fact that it was originally called Shallow Pool Lake, and the "indianized" the name to make it sound more like a Native American name. "

The 2nd attach is a topo map showing the region known as Shilapoo lake. You can see a thin curving blue line that's a stream. That alines with the curving green trees in the middle of the cleared land in the GE pic.

Getting money to cross Lower River Rd seems difficult.
But the 1996 information tells us that extreme flooding causes water levels to rise all the way to Lower River Road, at the Caterpillar Island area.

We also don't know what the Shilapoo Lake area looked like in 1971. It may not have been that cleared farmland.

We probably need topo maps from 1971 of the Shilapoo Lake/Vancouver Lake area, to muse further.

I like any area that might be deep mud that would allow Cooper to auger in and not be found.
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4463 on: December 02, 2021, 01:17:58 AM »
This is all old stuff, but I'm not bothering with Edwards' book and his analysis...

Sluggo always liked to say:

"The crucial fact here is the oscillations were time-stamped but the pressure bump was not. The pressure bump time was estimated (by the flight crew) as 10 to 15 minutes after the 8:05 call to the back. That is the only time issue with any variability."

Chaucer, what does Edwards say the FBI docs say about that?
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4464 on: December 02, 2021, 01:22:03 AM »
More old thoughts on Vancouver Lake, which again are interesting if you're going to talk about flood movements

June 8, 2008
(this might be the most interesting alternative?)

First: Land in Vancouver Lake. Then:

Money drain towards/down (edit) Lake River on the N side of Vancouver Lake, but take a quick turn and travel ~2 miles down the faint creek I've outlined in the attached.

It may have been more substantial in '71 before. Note it's still there, just doesn't connect to (edit) Lake River. It may have connected in the past, or during flood situations. I've also attached a topo map that shows the faint creek across Shilapoo Lake area (current map, may be different in '71)

nicely, it goes right toward Tena Bar. The '96 info tells us flooding can get water to Lower River Rd. (I'm not sure if that's Lower River Rd on the E side of Shillapoo, or the NW leg that's right next to Tena Bar)

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Vancouver Lake is a large lake just west of Vancouver, Washington, United States, north of the Columbia River and Portland, Oregon), south of Ridgefield, Washington and the Ridgefield National Wildlife Refuge.

The lake is very shallow, with a maximum depth of 12-15 ft and a mean depth of less than 3 ft. There is an island in the northern half of the lake. The island was formed from tailings of an Army Corps of Engineers dredging project, which dredged around the perimeter of the lake in the early 1980s. Lake River flows from the north shore to the Columbia River near Ridgefield, Washington. Due to seasonal variation in relative river and lake levels, Lake River experiences intermittent flow reversal and flows into Vancouver Lake for considerable periods of time.

The sources for Vancouver Lake's water include a flushing channel (equipped wth tidal gates to control flows) from the Columbia river near the SW shoreline and Burnt Bridge Creek on the NE shoreline, which winds about ten miles through many of the city's residential areas. Until the 1980s this creek was neglected and a major source of pollution for the lake.

Lower River Road leads west out of Vancouver to a park on the shore of Vancouver Lake which includes a large swimming area. A trail leads to Frenchman's Bar Park on the nearby Columbia River.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4465 on: December 02, 2021, 11:39:19 AM »
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More old thoughts on Vancouver Lake, which again are interesting if you're going to talk about flood movements

June 8, 2008
(this might be the most interesting alternative?)

First: Land in Vancouver Lake. Then:

Money drain towards/down (edit) Lake River on the N side of Vancouver Lake, but take a quick turn and travel ~2 miles down the faint creek I've outlined in the attached.

It may have been more substantial in '71 before. Note it's still there, just doesn't connect to (edit) Lake River. It may have connected in the past, or during flood situations. I've also attached a topo map that shows the faint creek across Shilapoo Lake area (current map, may be different in '71)

nicely, it goes right toward Tena Bar. The '96 info tells us flooding can get water to Lower River Rd. (I'm not sure if that's Lower River Rd on the E side of Shillapoo, or the NW leg that's right next to Tena Bar)

from You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Vancouver Lake is a large lake just west of Vancouver, Washington, United States, north of the Columbia River and Portland, Oregon), south of Ridgefield, Washington and the Ridgefield National Wildlife Refuge.

The lake is very shallow, with a maximum depth of 12-15 ft and a mean depth of less than 3 ft. There is an island in the northern half of the lake. The island was formed from tailings of an Army Corps of Engineers dredging project, which dredged around the perimeter of the lake in the early 1980s. Lake River flows from the north shore to the Columbia River near Ridgefield, Washington. Due to seasonal variation in relative river and lake levels, Lake River experiences intermittent flow reversal and flows into Vancouver Lake for considerable periods of time.

The sources for Vancouver Lake's water include a flushing channel (equipped wth tidal gates to control flows) from the Columbia river near the SW shoreline and Burnt Bridge Creek on the NE shoreline, which winds about ten miles through many of the city's residential areas. Until the 1980s this creek was neglected and a major source of pollution for the lake.

Lower River Road leads west out of Vancouver to a park on the shore of Vancouver Lake which includes a large swimming area. A trail leads to Frenchman's Bar Park on the nearby Columbia River.

Snowmman, like most everything else Cooper related, your last several posts regurgitates some information that is not accurate. 

As has been pointed out many times before, the Northwest Lower River Road is built on top of a levee.  In the Tena Bar area, everything on the East side of that levee/road drains into Vancouver Lake and then North down Lake River for about 15 miles where it joins the Columbia River.  Everything on the West side of that levee/road drains straight into the Columbia River.

The Flushing Channel is quite small and I have never seen a drop of water in it.  It is so small that you may not even notice it when you drive over it.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2021, 11:41:38 AM by Robert99 »
 

Offline snowmman

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4466 on: December 02, 2021, 12:43:44 PM »
I think, Robert99, your posts would be more lively if you used words like "vomit" rather than regurgitate.
Know your audience!
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4467 on: December 02, 2021, 01:29:23 PM »
Bob,
I know there are issues with the timing of the plot points on the FBI map. My point of discussion is Flight 305 being 23 nautical miles south of BTG VTC at 8:18. This would put the plane near or over the Columbia at the supposed time of the jump. I think a great many people in the Vortex would be surprised that this detail is now fact and not worthy of discussion. It's kind of a big deal, don't you think?

Snow,
Dr. Edwards seems to agree with Sluggo. He writes that over time, the FBI began to use the term "oscillations" in place of the pressure bump. In essence, they confused the two things and therefore confused the two different times. That is why they went with the 8:11 time of the jump because that is when the oscillations were first reported. To his credit, Dr. Edwards lays out a compelling timeline (using the 302s) that shows how the FBI began conflating the oscillations and the pressure bump until, in their minds, they were the same event.

This is something I have been saying ad nauseum for years. The oscillations came first and continued for an undetermined period of time before concluding with a larger, more noticeable pressure "bump". The oscillations were reported by the crew at 8:11/8:12, but the pressure bump has no documented time attached to it. Essentially, we do not have an exact time that Cooper left the aircraft.

Also, and this isn't directly relevant, but Dr. Edwards also calls into question the validity of the sled test and suggests that the conclusion that the pressure bump was caused by DBC jumping may not be accurate. I do not know enough about the science behind Edwards's science to have an opinion on this.
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4468 on: December 02, 2021, 02:10:52 PM »
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Bob,
I know there are issues with the timing of the plot points on the FBI map. My point of discussion is Flight 305 being 23 nautical miles south of BTG VTC at 8:18. This would put the plane near or over the Columbia at the supposed time of the jump. I think a great many people in the Vortex would be surprised that this detail is now fact and not worthy of discussion. It's kind of a big deal, don't you think?

Chaucer, the 8:18 PM time at the 23 DME point has been a "fact" since the flight crew said they were at that point and Harrison recorded the time of their transmission as 8:18 PM.  There is nothing further to discuss about it much less argue.

Do you want to argue or "discuss" that the 7:36 PM time of the takeoff from SEATAC is not correct?

 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4469 on: December 02, 2021, 02:15:40 PM »
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I think, Robert99, your posts would be more lively if you used words like "vomit" rather than regurgitate.
Know your audience!

Do you mean there were too many syllables? :o