Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 283879 times)

Offline DBfan57

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4335 on: March 23, 2021, 12:22:08 PM »
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But once again I will ask, as I have asked some others, if he pulls the chords on either side, would it not give him at least some ability to alter the course of his landing spot?  They have emphasized he had non steerable chutes.  But couldn't you have a bit of control because it would have to change your direction if you  pulled the chords?  Sir Isaac Newton if you will.  To some degree.  To avoid hitting the water, if he was near the water.

I have to laugh. Maybe you'll believe it now, but I should probably make a side bet with 377 about how long it will be before you ask that same question again. Not sure if Mr. Newton was a rigger, and no disrespect for his intellect, but I bet 377 and I both have more jumps than he does.

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But if he no-pulls, then drift doesn’t become an issue. If he jumped near the Columbia then the plane is flying into the direction of the wind. That would negate the forward throw, correct?

Pretty much what R99 said. You are pretty much correct in that if Cooper no-pulls, then drift isn't much of an issue. The forward throw will still happen regardless of winds, but it dissipates pretty quickly. High upper winds can cause some freefall drift, but not a whole lot. His body position could cause some 'slide', but again not a lot. Someone who no-pulls (or streamers) will end up pretty close to their exit point. Unfortunately, I witnessed my first one of those when I was about six.
I assure you I am not asking again about the pull on the chord here. But your take on the no drift in that kind of a wind storm they had reported is laughable to me
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4336 on: March 23, 2021, 02:05:51 PM »
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But once again I will ask, as I have asked some others, if he pulls the chords on either side, would it not give him at least some ability to alter the course of his landing spot?  They have emphasized he had non steerable chutes.  But couldn't you have a bit of control because it would have to change your direction if you  pulled the chords?  Sir Isaac Newton if you will.  To some degree.  To avoid hitting the water, if he was near the water.

I have to laugh. Maybe you'll believe it now, but I should probably make a side bet with 377 about how long it will be before you ask that same question again. Not sure if Mr. Newton was a rigger, and no disrespect for his intellect, but I bet 377 and I both have more jumps than he does.

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But if he no-pulls, then drift doesn’t become an issue. If he jumped near the Columbia then the plane is flying into the direction of the wind. That would negate the forward throw, correct?

Pretty much what R99 said. You are pretty much correct in that if Cooper no-pulls, then drift isn't much of an issue. The forward throw will still happen regardless of winds, but it dissipates pretty quickly. High upper winds can cause some freefall drift, but not a whole lot. His body position could cause some 'slide', but again not a lot. Someone who no-pulls (or streamers) will end up pretty close to their exit point. Unfortunately, I witnessed my first one of those when I was about six.
I assure you I am not asking again about the pull on the chord here. But your take on the no drift in that kind of a wind storm they had reported is laughable to me

What "wind storm" are you talking about?  The highest winds measured in the Portland area at 10,000 feet were about 35 knots and less than that at lower altitudes.
 

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4337 on: March 23, 2021, 05:33:30 PM »
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Robert, you're arguing against Chaucer's calculated reasoning, but you seem to be agreeing with his basic point, which is that if Cooper goes in, he's pretty close to his exit point, which is correct. No, I don't have a degree in physics, but sadly, I've watched a number of people do it.
Thank you.

"Pretty close" and "almost directly underneath" are two different things.

Nah. Come on, Robert, I think you're arguing for the sake of being argumentative. Chaucer's not trying to pinpoint Cooper's crater, hell, the jet itself can not be pinpointed. He's just looking for parameters with which to work his Tena Bar money theory.
 

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4338 on: March 23, 2021, 05:57:45 PM »
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But once again I will ask, as I have asked some others, if he pulls the chords on either side, would it not give him at least some ability to alter the course of his landing spot?  They have emphasized he had non steerable chutes.  But couldn't you have a bit of control because it would have to change your direction if you  pulled the chords?  Sir Isaac Newton if you will.  To some degree.  To avoid hitting the water, if he was near the water.

I have to laugh. Maybe you'll believe it now, but I should probably make a side bet with 377 about how long it will be before you ask that same question again. Not sure if Mr. Newton was a rigger, and no disrespect for his intellect, but I bet 377 and I both have more jumps than he does.

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But if he no-pulls, then drift doesn’t become an issue. If he jumped near the Columbia then the plane is flying into the direction of the wind. That would negate the forward throw, correct?

Pretty much what R99 said. You are pretty much correct in that if Cooper no-pulls, then drift isn't much of an issue. The forward throw will still happen regardless of winds, but it dissipates pretty quickly. High upper winds can cause some freefall drift, but not a whole lot. His body position could cause some 'slide', but again not a lot. Someone who no-pulls (or streamers) will end up pretty close to their exit point. Unfortunately, I witnessed my first one of those when I was about six.
I assure you I am not asking again about the pull on the chord here. But your take on the no drift in that kind of a wind storm they had reported is laughable to me

And exactly what do you base that on? I'm generally pretty low-key and don't like talking like this, but... I've been jumping since '79, been an instructor since '90. I stopped logging ages ago, but I've probably got somewhere between 15 and 18 thousand jumps. As I've said, SADLY I've watched people go in from exit at 12,500' to impact. I consider myself an expert at the (lost) art of spotting, which is determining the exit point in order to make the desired landing area, in a variety of weather conditions, including in upper winds well exceeding 70 knots. Remember, Chaucer is talking about a no-pull scenario here, not time under canopy. I'm not saying there would be no drift, just that it wouldn't be a whole lot. Robert99 seems to scientifically agree with that. So laugh if you will, but I think I'm giving a fairly well informed opinion here.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4339 on: March 23, 2021, 06:12:03 PM »
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Robert, you're arguing against Chaucer's calculated reasoning, but you seem to be agreeing with his basic point, which is that if Cooper goes in, he's pretty close to his exit point, which is correct. No, I don't have a degree in physics, but sadly, I've watched a number of people do it.
Thank you.

"Pretty close" and "almost directly underneath" are two different things.

Nah. Come on, Robert, I think you're arguing for the sake of being argumentative. Chaucer's not trying to pinpoint Cooper's crater, hell, the jet itself can not be pinpointed. He's just looking for parameters with which to work his Tena Bar money theory.

Let me see if this will clarify things a bit.  If the Cooper airliner ground track has a crosswind component, he will land downwind of that track if he is a no-pull.  If the Cooper airliner ground track has a headwind component, he will not land downwind of his jump point on that track if he is a no-pull.

Keep in mind that the maximum wind at 10,000 feet was about 35 knots at the time Cooper jumped and less than that at lower altitudes.  Also, keep in mind that Cooper will be on the ground and deceased in not more than 60 seconds if he is a no-pull.

If Cooper jumps in a hurricane with 200+ MPH winds, the above does not apply and all bets are off. :)
 

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4340 on: March 23, 2021, 06:28:50 PM »
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Robert, you're arguing against Chaucer's calculated reasoning, but you seem to be agreeing with his basic point, which is that if Cooper goes in, he's pretty close to his exit point, which is correct. No, I don't have a degree in physics, but sadly, I've watched a number of people do it.
Thank you.

"Pretty close" and "almost directly underneath" are two different things.

Nah. Come on, Robert, I think you're arguing for the sake of being argumentative. Chaucer's not trying to pinpoint Cooper's crater, hell, the jet itself can not be pinpointed. He's just looking for parameters with which to work his Tena Bar money theory.

Let me see if this will clarify things a bit.  If the Cooper airliner ground track has a crosswind component, he will land downwind of that track if he is a no-pull.  If the Cooper airliner ground track has a headwind component, he will not land downwind of his jump point on that track if he is a no-pull.

Keep in mind that the maximum wind at 10,000 feet was about 35 knots at the time Cooper jumped and less than that at lower altitudes.  Also, keep in mind that Cooper will be on the ground and deceased in not more than 60 seconds if he is a no-pull.

If Cooper jumps in a hurricane with 200+ MPH winds, the above does not apply and all bets are off. :)

It was clear the first time you said it, and it isn't anything that I don't already know. But you seem to be arguing, yet your ultimate conclusion is the same as mine - If Cooper is a no-pull, then he doesn't end up too awfully far from his exit point. And I think that's all that Chaucer was after.
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4341 on: March 24, 2021, 01:44:37 AM »
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I'm assuming DBC jumped at 8:13. If the jet was 23 DME at 8:18 then DBC jumped 5 minutes earlier. Back tracking 5 minutes along the Western Flight Path from 23 DME is about 16 miles north and puts the jet very near Tena Bar.
Actually, EU, I thought the same thing but in regards to the FBI path. Backtracking 5 minutes along the FBI flight path, would put an 8:13 jump spot very near the Columbia.

Unless Cpr is an expert and drops then opens at about 1000ft feet, he is going to drift no matter the flight path. He will not land in the Columbia or at Tina Bar in any event even with a jump at 8:13. There is no scenario that drops money at the Ingram find location on Tina Bar. This isnt a murder where a body drops in place to be found 8 years later in the same place!  ;)
But if he no-pulls, then drift doesn’t become an issue. If he jumped near the Columbia then the plane is flying into the direction of the wind. That would negate the forward throw, correct?

The last comment above is the original Chaucer post and comment on drift if Cooper was a no-pull. 

Replying directly to Chaucer's comments, statements, or whatever:

1.  Drift is always an issue if the wind is blowing.  It may be a big issue, a medium issue, or a little issue, but it is an issue.

2.  Cooper jumped very near or over the Columbia River and the 35 knot wind at 10,000 feet was from 45 degrees off to the right of the airliner's track.  Note that the track of the airliner was very close to 180 degrees true and the wind was from 225 degrees true.

3.  Since the wind is from 45 degrees off the track, in this case the headwind and crosswind components have the same values.  The headwind component would move Cooper back toward the jump point and the crosswind component would move him downwind from the track.  He will not return to the original geographical jump point under any conditions but he will be in the neighborhood.  Keep reading below.

The instant that Cooper separates from the airliner, he is subject only to gravity and his body aerodynamics.  Once Cooper's horizontal motion with respect to the air mass has ceased, his horizontal motion and the air mass horizontal motion are the same.  So when the "forward throw" comes to a stop, Cooper will already be slightly downwind of the track and maybe 1500 or 2000 feet below the 10,000 foot jump altitude.  From that point, it is strictly straight down with respect to the air mass.  And the air mass is moving horizontally at the wind speed.

There are two different frames of reference at play here.  The aerodynamics are determined only with respect to the air mass.  The geographical locations must take into account the fact that the air mass is moving with respect to the geography.  Be sure to keep them straight.       
 

Offline DBfan57

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4342 on: March 24, 2021, 07:50:36 AM »
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But once again I will ask, as I have asked some others, if he pulls the chords on either side, would it not give him at least some ability to alter the course of his landing spot?  They have emphasized he had non steerable chutes.  But couldn't you have a bit of control because it would have to change your direction if you  pulled the chords?  Sir Isaac Newton if you will.  To some degree.  To avoid hitting the water, if he was near the water.
I have heard on Podcasts that there were 50 mile pr hour winds that night?  Perhaps gusts?  But it was certainly windy and raining. That you cannot argue

I have to laugh. Maybe you'll believe it now, but I should probably make a side bet with 377 about how long it will be before you ask that same question again. Not sure if Mr. Newton was a rigger, and no disrespect for his intellect, but I bet 377 and I both have more jumps than he does.

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But if he no-pulls, then drift doesn’t become an issue. If he jumped near the Columbia then the plane is flying into the direction of the wind. That would negate the forward throw, correct?

Pretty much what R99 said. You are pretty much correct in that if Cooper no-pulls, then drift isn't much of an issue. The forward throw will still happen regardless of winds, but it dissipates pretty quickly. High upper winds can cause some freefall drift, but not a whole lot. His body position could cause some 'slide', but again not a lot. Someone who no-pulls (or streamers) will end up pretty close to their exit point. Unfortunately, I witnessed my first one of those when I was about six.
I assure you I am not asking again about the pull on the chord here. But your take on the no drift in that kind of a wind storm they had reported is laughable to me

What "wind storm" are you talking about?  The highest winds measured in the Portland area at 10,000 feet were about 35 knots and less than that at lower altitudes.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4343 on: March 24, 2021, 12:16:49 PM »
I thought my point was clear. Of course Cooper isn't going to fall directly straight down and land precisely underneath the spot he jumped from. I was merely making the point that:

1. Drift is not as much of an issue with a no-pull than it is when one deploys his chute.
2. Forward throw would be mitigated by headwinds to a certain degree.
2. If Cooper jumped over the Columbia, say between the I-5 bridge and Pearson Air Park, then he is likely going to end up somewhere between the I-5 bridge and the Pearson Air Park on the ground.

I'm not seeing how any of those statements are particularly controversial, and I'm not understanding why Bob is being didactic about it.

 

Offline dudeman17

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4344 on: March 24, 2021, 05:58:46 PM »
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I thought my point was clear. Of course Cooper isn't going to fall directly straight down and land precisely underneath the spot he jumped from. I was merely making the point that:

1. Drift is not as much of an issue with a no-pull than it is when one deploys his chute.
2. Forward throw would be mitigated by headwinds to a certain degree.
2. If Cooper jumped over the Columbia, say between the I-5 bridge and Pearson Air Park, then he is likely going to end up somewhere between the I-5 bridge and the Pearson Air Park on the ground.

I'm not seeing how any of those statements are particularly controversial, and I'm not understanding why Bob is being didactic about it.

And as someone with over four decades of first hand experience with human bodies in freefall, I'd say that you are correct. With the slight caveat that I don't know how far it is from the I-5 bridge to Pearson Air Park.

-------------------

Robert, I'm not sure what the psych profile is that you feel the need to argue with people with whom you are ultimately not disagreeing. And your calculations, such as they are, are missing at least three factors. I don't know where you live or what your physicality is, but ultimately I would say, put down your slide rule, close your textbooks, come out to 'Snore and I'll show you.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4345 on: March 24, 2021, 07:20:36 PM »
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And as someone with over four decades of first hand experience with human bodies in freefall, I'd say that you are correct. With the slight caveat that I don't know how far it is from the I-5 bridge to Pearson Air Park.
Approximately 2.5 kilometers.

 
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4346 on: March 24, 2021, 09:38:52 PM »
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I thought my point was clear. Of course Cooper isn't going to fall directly straight down and land precisely underneath the spot he jumped from. I was merely making the point that:

1. Drift is not as much of an issue with a no-pull than it is when one deploys his chute.
2. Forward throw would be mitigated by headwinds to a certain degree.
2. If Cooper jumped over the Columbia, say between the I-5 bridge and Pearson Air Park, then he is likely going to end up somewhere between the I-5 bridge and the Pearson Air Park on the ground.

I'm not seeing how any of those statements are particularly controversial, and I'm not understanding why Bob is being didactic about it.

And as someone with over four decades of first hand experience with human bodies in freefall, I'd say that you are correct. With the slight caveat that I don't know how far it is from the I-5 bridge to Pearson Air Park.

-------------------

Robert, I'm not sure what the psych profile is that you feel the need to argue with people with whom you are ultimately not disagreeing. And your calculations, such as they are, are missing at least three factors. I don't know where you live or what your physicality is, but ultimately I would say, put down your slide rule, close your textbooks, come out to 'Snore and I'll show you.

Dudeman, I am not arguing with anyone. :o  I was just answering questions that Chaucer asked, which is why I reposted his original post that asked those questions. 

Engineer's slide rules have been obsolete since about 1970.  And yes, I paid about $400 for an HP-35 (I think the designation was) in 1970.

Don't worry about my psychological health.  In my younger days, I made it past a mandatory psychological evaluation that was necessary for me to participate in a certain project.  I was ruled sane enough, or maybe crazy enough, to participate in that project (I don't remember which).
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #4347 on: March 30, 2021, 12:38:49 AM »
This was posted to an unknown Facebook group. I have been trying to find this Paul Jefferies to find out more about his story. However, if true - BIG IF - it would corroborate a landing in or near the Columbia. Any help identifying this guy is appreciated: