I’ve jumped from a jet airliner. It’s not so hard. My conditions were a piece of cake compared to what Cooper faced, but all he had to do was pull the ripcord handle and he would likely land alive.

377

I wonder if this idea of "easy jump" is what gets people worked up about the money find on Tena Bar.
If you accept it likely means he jumped near Portland, the jump is even easier than presented easily. (except not getting caught).
So if you think Cooper died on the jump, he has to have jumped near Portland and died, and the body not found.

Then you have to weigh that against jumped, survived, and hid chute. And never talked about it.

Which is more likely if jumping near Portland: death, maybe by drowning or no-pull, and body not found, or survive and never talk about it.

The money find seems to force you to make that choice, I think. Jump near Portland. Then: dead or alive?

“Likely” does not mean “definite”.

Each of the difficult conditions and variables decreases Cooper’s chances of survival by a degree. So even if he chance of survival was 90% out of 100. There is still that pesky 10% that people don’t seem to want to entertain. 377 and Andrade along with many others are convinced he survived. I’ve heard from experienced skydivers who are say that was a difficult jump for anyone and especially for someone with little experience.

Anyways, this is the wrong thread for that discussion.

I'm not sure I agree with your model of how "difficulty" couples to survival probability.
There's a number of risk sports, where people never die doing the most difficult thing...they die doing some humdrum thing.

Why? Because they are totally focused during the hard thing, and the mind/body isn't dialed in during the easy thing.
That and many repetitions of "easier" things, can be a total risk equal to one iteration of a riskier thing.

So: a single jump over Portland out of a 727? Maybe not so risky.

Saying you have a model that's accurate for getting the jump successful, when you don't even know Cooper's background or skills...well, you're just guessing right?

You have no idea how much experience Cooper had. Once you give that as a "rationale" for your model..well I think you've invalidated your model.

re: wrong thread...I guess on podcasts stuff like this isn't discussed

“Likely” does not mean “definite”.

Each of the difficult conditions and variables decreases Cooper’s chances of survival by a degree. So even if he chance of survival was 90% out of 100. There is still that pesky 10% that people don’t seem to want to entertain. 377 and Andrade along with many others are convinced he survived. I’ve heard from experienced skydivers who are say that was a difficult jump for anyone and especially for someone with little experience.

Anyways, this is the wrong thread for that discussion.

Based on my numbers, I put it at 82%

 ;-)

Sure Cooper could have cratered but if his body wasn’t submerged vultures would almost certainly have found it. Their circling provides a good visual clue that can often be seen from a considerable distance. You can bet that there were people looking for a body with 200,000 in cash attached.

To me the best evidence for survival is that no missing person was a good match. There was massive publicity about the skyjack when it occurred. Someone missing who matched witness descriptions would have come to light. This wasn’t an obscure case.

I’ve done one DC 9-21 jet jump and several night and water jumps. I think if Cooper pulled then he likely landed alive. If, however, he landed in water over head height at night I think he drowned. My jet, night and water jumps were not hard, but the conditions were carefully chosen to minimize risk. Truth be told my night jumps were done under full moons in perfect weather. The water jumps were in bright sunlight with recovery personnel in close attendance. The jet jump was over a DZ in summer under perfect conditions. I’m not trying to pass myself off as a commando. The night missions done over North Vietnam by Ted Braden and his MAC SOG colleagues would have scared the living hell out of me. The harrowing rescues accomplished by USAF PJs required skill levels way above my own. I’m just a fun jumper not a pro.

I do think I’m qualified to assess the risk in Coopers jump. Risky? Yes. Certain death? No way. Even a novice could have survived with a bit of luck. The way Coooer easily donned an NB rig tells me he was no stranger to parachutes.

377





 

Jet, airstairs, night, weather, none of that poses a significant risk to his life.

Having been an instructor for over thirty years and having taken thousands of people on their first jumps, I think I have a pretty good take on how different types of people are likely to perform. If Cooper has it in him to plan and go through with this caper, I think pulling a ripcord poses no significant challenge to him.

If he pulls, even if unstable, he all but assuredly gets an open canopy.

The main threat to his survival is if he is injured on landing and unable to hike out. With a non steerable chute over possibly inhospitable terrain, that is certainly possible. If he lands in water, that could be a problem.


I have to keep open the possibility that Cooper was found, and whoever found him buried everything and kept the money. But then you'd have the missing person issue...

dudeman:

I always loved this story.
I posted it in DZ.com in 2008. The pics are not available and I don't have the magazines any more, but
Randy Leavitt tells the story of teaching Brett Maurer how to jump in the parking lot in Yosemite.
Brett's first jump was off El Cap. I figure if Maurer could do that, I could jump a 727 as first jump

Every time I hear people opinionating about the risk of Cooper's jump, I think of Brett doing his first jump ever, off El Cap, after just having instruction in the parking lot. How do you calculate the reality that Brett survived?


----

Magazine is a now-defunct UK climbing/mountaineering magazine called "Mountain"
Number 99. Sept./Oct. 1984.
pages 33 thru 37. title: "Cliffing" by Randy Leavitt.

Page 36 has the two B/W pictures attached.
Caption says "Brett Maurer, having dispensed with the formality of a preliminary jump from an aircraft, makes his first ever parachute jump from the top of El Capitan.
2nd caption: Two seconds later Maurer surveys the landing site.

The date of the jump isn't included, but from the tone of the article I suspect sometime between '80-'84.

Photos taken by Leavitt.

re: an entire industry dedicated to "managing" risk.

I think you're talking about the insurance industry. They don't "manage" risk. They just figure out how to make money off the risks other people take.

The people who actually try to manage risk tend to be specific to the industry/activity in question. There's no such thing as generalized risk management.

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Jet, airstairs, night, weather, none of that poses a significant risk to his life.

Having been an instructor for over thirty years and having taken thousands of people on their first jumps, I think I have a pretty good take on how different types of people are likely to perform. If Cooper has it in him to plan and go through with this caper, I think pulling a ripcord poses no significant challenge to him.

If he pulls, even if unstable, he all but assuredly gets an open canopy.

The main threat to his survival is if he is injured on landing and unable to hike out. With a non steerable chute over possibly inhospitable terrain, that is certainly possible. If he lands in water, that could be a problem.


I have to keep open the possibility that Cooper was found, and whoever found him buried everything and kept the money. But then you'd have the missing person issue...

Dudeman,
I'm just playing devil's advocate, so please don't think I'm being argumentative or questioning your expertise, so let me ask you this:

The military chute he used was a four line release, correct? Essentially, after you deployed, you pulled the lines from the canopy, grabbed those lines and wrapped them around your hands and those become your steering. You pull down on the left or the right and it pulls the canopy down and distorts it so it turns in that direction. It wasn't a perfectly efficient system and it was standard practice to turn into the wind so you wouldn’t be running with the wing when you landed.

So you have to assume he was able to release those lines, wrap them around his hands in very cold temperatures with no glove on, and turn into the wind. All at night in 40 degree weather. In your opinion, wouldn't his hands have hurt from the cold and made it difficult for him to hang on to his steering toggles?

Secondly, you say that the weather, the night jump, the unfamiliar rig would not pose a significant risk to his life. Would that be dependent on his skill level? Suppose he's a complete whuffo? Or someone with a handful of jumps?

Chaucer, hold on here!  I am sure Dudeman can explain this better but I don't think there is anything known as a "four line release" parachute canopy.  There are, or used to be, military emergency parachutes that had four shroud lines marked with tape that were intended to be cut after the parachute opened.  One shroud line on each riser and there was a "line cutter" attached to one of those risers.  The point was to cut those marked shroud lines to stabilize or reduce the oscillations of the canopy.  They served no other purpose after that and any directional changes in the descent had to be done with the other shroud lines in the usual manner.

It is highly unlikely that Cooper jumped with a parachute canopy that included shroud line cutters.  If his parachute was an NB-6, which has been claimed but is probably not true, then it definitely did not have those cutters.  Further, how is Cooper going to determine the wind direction under the conditions that existed during his jump?