Author Topic: General Questions About The Case  (Read 565724 times)

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: General Questions About The Case
« Reply #3375 on: July 09, 2023, 06:12:17 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
As repeatedly pointed out to you, the only available winds aloft information for the Portland and Seattle areas is that provided by the NOAA balloon data and the FAA winds aloft data provided to pilots for flight planning.
Pointed out to me? I'm the one that posted the file with the data, Robert. You chose not to read it.

Discussing this topic with you is exhausting. What exactly have I said that you disagree with?

Chaucer, I am not aware of you posting a file with any meaningful data.  The only meaningful or realistic winds aloft data that I am aware of is that which Tom Kaye obtained and I believe it is all posted on this site.
 

Offline Chaucer

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1078
  • Thanked: 241 times
Re: General Questions About The Case
« Reply #3376 on: July 10, 2023, 04:16:46 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Also, here is the weather data from the most recent Vault release. This comes from the U.S. Weather Bureau which is now known as the National Weather Service. The data indicates the wind shifting (in Portland) from out of the southeast to out of the west to out of the south-southwest over the course of 2 or 3 hours.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Here is the post along with the link. At no point did I claim that they were winds aloft, yet you fail to recognize that Tom's winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet.
“Completely unhinged”
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: General Questions About The Case
« Reply #3377 on: July 10, 2023, 11:36:23 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Also, here is the weather data from the most recent Vault release. This comes from the U.S. Weather Bureau which is now known as the National Weather Service. The data indicates the wind shifting (in Portland) from out of the southeast to out of the west to out of the south-southwest over the course of 2 or 3 hours.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Here is the post along with the link. At no point did I claim that they were winds aloft, yet you fail to recognize that Tom's winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet.

Chaucer, Tom Kaye's "winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet" is exactly what I have been telling you.  The NOAA balloon data was the sole source of measured data used in predicting the winds aloft that the FAA issued for pilot planning purposes.  Except for the measured NOAA balloon data and what was measured at ground level and reported in the hourly sequences reports, everything else was a prediction.

The winds aloft were measured by the balloons from ground level up and we do not need to go above 10,000 feet above sea level here since that is as high as the airliner went in the WA and OR areas.
 

Offline Chaucer

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1078
  • Thanked: 241 times
Re: General Questions About The Case
« Reply #3378 on: July 11, 2023, 12:39:20 AM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Also, here is the weather data from the most recent Vault release. This comes from the U.S. Weather Bureau which is now known as the National Weather Service. The data indicates the wind shifting (in Portland) from out of the southeast to out of the west to out of the south-southwest over the course of 2 or 3 hours.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Here is the post along with the link. At no point did I claim that they were winds aloft, yet you fail to recognize that Tom's winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet.

Chaucer, Tom Kaye's "winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet" is exactly what I have been telling you.  The NOAA balloon data was the sole source of measured data used in predicting the winds aloft that the FAA issued for pilot planning purposes.  Except for the measured NOAA balloon data and what was measured at ground level and reported in the hourly sequences reports, everything else was a prediction.

The winds aloft were measured by the balloons from ground level up and we do not need to go above 10,000 feet above sea level here since that is as high as the airliner went in the WA and OR areas.
I feel like I'm being gaslighted.

This is what I have been telling YOU. Why are you trying to argue with me about it?

My point is that that NOAA data from Tom shows that the ground winds and winds aloft were fairly consistent with one another. Therefore, one could conclude that if we know the ground winds, the winds aloft would not be much different. The caveat is that the NOAA data provided by Tom comes from reporting  areas dozens about miles away from any reasonable jump spot. So, the data is of the winds aloft is merely estimates and extrapolations.

“Completely unhinged”
 

Offline Robert99

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1711
  • Thanked: 196 times
Re: General Questions About The Case
« Reply #3379 on: July 11, 2023, 11:14:29 AM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Also, here is the weather data from the most recent Vault release. This comes from the U.S. Weather Bureau which is now known as the National Weather Service. The data indicates the wind shifting (in Portland) from out of the southeast to out of the west to out of the south-southwest over the course of 2 or 3 hours.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
Here is the post along with the link. At no point did I claim that they were winds aloft, yet you fail to recognize that Tom's winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet.

Chaucer, Tom Kaye's "winds aloft data was from GROUND to 12,000 feet" is exactly what I have been telling you.  The NOAA balloon data was the sole source of measured data used in predicting the winds aloft that the FAA issued for pilot planning purposes.  Except for the measured NOAA balloon data and what was measured at ground level and reported in the hourly sequences reports, everything else was a prediction.

The winds aloft were measured by the balloons from ground level up and we do not need to go above 10,000 feet above sea level here since that is as high as the airliner went in the WA and OR areas.
I feel like I'm being gaslighted.

This is what I have been telling YOU. Why are you trying to argue with me about it?

My point is that that NOAA data from Tom shows that the ground winds and winds aloft were fairly consistent with one another. Therefore, one could conclude that if we know the ground winds, the winds aloft would not be much different. The caveat is that the NOAA data provided by Tom comes from reporting  areas dozens about miles away from any reasonable jump spot. So, the data is of the winds aloft is merely estimates and extrapolations.

Chaucer, you seem to be unable to understand that the winds aloft were MEASURED by the balloon data. 

Also, your theory that the winds aloft will be in the same direction as the surface winds is baseless.  To disprove your theory, all you have to do is check the surface winds for several locations near where you live and those surface winds will probably be in completely different directions.

The FAA's publication, "Aviation Weather", is available free and online for anyone who wants to gain some knowledge of the subject.
 

Offline Chaucer

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1078
  • Thanked: 241 times
Re: General Questions About The Case
« Reply #3380 on: July 11, 2023, 12:29:07 PM »
You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
All,
I was having dinner with my science friend Bruce the other night and he asked about Cooper. I told him there was a big discussion about the flight path and the placard drift rate. Bruce is retired from JPL, created the first clear air turbulence instrument and was on the team that discovered the ozone hole. He described the boundary layer  over land (as opposed to water) as going from 0-3000 feet or so and it is in this layer that the winds typically are in a different direction from winds aloft. He said the way to answer the question is get the radiosonde data from those dates in that area and it would show the winds from ground to 12K+ feet or so. It turns out that the data is tricky to get and condense into readable form so I had to bribe him with a steak dinner and now we have the data!

The two closest locations were Salem just south of Portland and Quillayute Bruce said was just west of Seattle. They launch twice a day at 5pm and 5am so that is the data we have. I had him pull a second random day Nov 11 for comparison and you can see that the winds then were actually east near the ground. Nov 24 looks pretty consistent all the way down but seems to be more southerly than we had estimated. Now you can do a proper analysis. :)

Tom Kaye
This is Tom's original post about the radiosonde data.

Here is his last sentence for emphasis:

Nov 24 looks pretty consistent all the way down but seems to be more southerly than we had estimated.

If you believe the theory that the ground winds were consistent with the winds aloft is baseless, perhaps you should take it up with Tom.

Also, I know the winds aloft were measured by the balloons. You keep trying to pick a fight over things we agree with. As unbelievable as it may be to you, you are not the only one who understands this stuff.

Rather than trying to be confrontational, condescending, and argumentative, perhaps you should cooperate and collaborate in good faith.

This isn't a contest on who is smarter or who gets the right answer first. It's about everyone working together to find the truth. That's why I share the information that I find with everyone rather than working alone in the dark. It's also why I am comfortable admitting when I am wrong or when I don't know something and asking for help. I don't have all the answers. Spoiler alert: neither do you. Maybe all of us together can change that.
“Completely unhinged”
 
The following users thanked this post: nickyb233