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[Bruce A. Smith]

... He flew B17 missions in WWII - was a navigator.

Too bad. If he rides with my mom, his days of being a navigator are OVER. She is the Royal Queen Madonna of the Back Seat. Those who challenge her are in eminent danger of having an acute episode of acid-reflux.

She prides herself on her Prussian tendencies. In addition, she was a math major, from Smith College, no less.

[Shutter]

Bruce, the storm surge is not a factor here. we have a mandatory evac on the coastline. the danger is the winds. inland doesn't save you from squat when the eye wall is in your path. it packs heavy winds, micro bursts, and mini tornado's..

Only two major ways out..the turnpike, and I-95. I-75 doesn't go far north. it starts up again further north. I don't think traffic will be that bad unless half the counties decide to leave. I don't see that happening either.

[Shutter]

The whole idea is keeping pressure out of a house..when a window breaks it allows pressure into the house and starts working on the roof. once the roof goes it will start working on the flimsy interior walls taking them out. now, you are down to block walls. they crumble as well. take a look back at Andrew. drywall is no match to heavy rain. a house can disappear very easy with a storm of this magnitude, good codes or not..a micro burst will blow the house apart, I've seen it..storm surge? I'll take it any day of the week...

Now, the roof is gone, the interior is collapsing, all the windows are gone..how well do you think you will do? this can go on for hours? it's only safe to a certain extent. it's a domino effect.

[Bruce A. Smith]

Bruce, the storm surge is not a factor here. we have a mandatory evac on the coastline. the danger is the winds. inland doesn't save you from squat when the eye wall is in your path. it packs heavy winds, micro bursts, and mini tornado's..

Only two major ways out..the turnpike, and I-95. I-75 doesn't go far north. it starts up again further north. I don't think traffic will be that bad unless half the counties decide to leave. I don't see that happening either.

I concur. The winds, as predicted, are gonna rip Broward County to pieces. Will your safe room hold together for 8-12 hours? If so, I would stay if I was in your position.

If you evac, where will you go?

The pix coming in from the British Virgin Islands indicate that regular commercial structures survived. Smaller, individual buildings like homes and residences got blown apart. That tells me that regular US-built and Floridian hurricane coded buildings will survive if the wind and concomitant stuff, like micro bursts and tornadoes, are all they are dealing with.

To me, the wind is just one issue. Another issue to consider is dealing with the chaos of the aftermath - no power, injuries, people in shock, roads closed or impassable. If you evac, you might not be able to get back for several days or a week. Irma's impact will be much greater than the physical destruction from Harvey, even with its epic flooding, imho.

[Bruce A. Smith]

The whole idea is keeping pressure out of a house..when a window breaks it allows pressure into the house and starts working on the roof. once the roof goes it will start working on the flimsy interior walls taking them out. now, you are down to block walls. they crumble as well. take a look back at Andrew. drywall is no match to heavy rain. a house can disappear very easy with a storm of this magnitude, good codes or not..a micro burst will blow the house apart, I've seen it..storm surge? I'll take it any day of the week...

Now, the roof is gone, the interior is collapsing, all the windows are gone..how well do you think you will do? this can go on for hours? it's only safe to a certain extent. it's a domino effect.

I agree. Your analysis is spot on. That is why I talk about a safe room - an inner sanctum, like a life boat that will still be able to survive when the rest of the house is coming apart. From what you've described in the past, you've got a bathroom or something that is really tied down tight, correct?. "Right and Tight" is the term I've heard. That sounds like your place, no?

[Shutter]

I concur. The winds, as predicted, are gonna rip Broward County to pieces. Will your safe room hold together for 8-12 hours? If so, I would stay if I was in your position.

This is what I have to take into consideration. I don't know if the home can take the abuse, plain and simple. these are winds that are above normal hurricane storms. you could even get caught up in winds much higher than they know about. I will know for sure tomorrow. if it remains above a cat 4, I have to ask myself why I would stick around?

[Bruce A. Smith]

Sleep well, my friend. You have big decisions to make tomorrow.

We're rootin' for ya either way.

[Shutter]

actually, a bathroom or closet is safe. this is not something that is written in stone. it can fail just as anything else. storm shutters fail, building codes fail..all bets are off. our contracts have a clause "acts of god" to get away from what the storm can do. shutters rated at 150 mph were ripped off of buildings..the winds were never clocked that high according to the facts..(Wilma)

[Shutter]

Yes, I'm way past my sack time....will update tomorrow...

good nite America......

[Robert99]

Yes, I'm way past my sack time....will update tomorrow...

good nite America......

On the subject of Harvey, I have seen estimates that it dumped 27 trillion gallons of water on the Houston area.  According to my calculations, that is about 105 CUBIC MILES of water.

[Bruce A. Smith]

Yup, a lot of water.

Makes one wonder what Houstonians thought 50 inches was going to look like. Begs the question as to why their preparations were so minimal. I find it astonishing that so many people who appeared on camera seemed shocked by what happened and had no "Grab and Go Bags," needing rescuers to take them back home so they could gather their meds and other necessities. Or that mementoes and memory-laden tschatkes were floating in the water and that they never had the presence of mind to put stuff in baggies or take them upstairs to a dry place.

I saw no media interviews or investigation these dynamics, nor saw people who had a robust prep plan - like turning their second story into a dry refuge filled with water barrels, propane stoves, ice chests, food and dry clothes - or medical supplies so that they could take care of their neighbors and rescuers in the neighborhood. The lack of investigative reporting during Harvey was so extreme to me that I wrote editor David Leonhardt at the NY Times and asking why none of his 20-plus reporters weren't exploring any of these issues.

My take away from Harvey and the media coverage is that America wanted a feel-good story about heroes and rescues. The height of that conceit occurred at the end of Harvey when CBS TV filmed a twenty-minute rescue of three teenagers and a young adult from a flooded parking lot in Port Arthur, Texas. The sun was shining, and the waters were no more than three-feet deep, and the film crew was standing next to the kids being rescued. Why was a chopper necessary? It was a New York National Air Guard helo, to boot, so it made great TV for the NY audience, but really - if these people really needed an evac, why didn't they just hitch a ride with the CBS van? Maybe the helo guys just said - "Hell, we just flew 1500 miles in this sucker and we're gonna rescue somebody, dammit, before we fly another 1500 miles to go home."

[Shutter]

Winds are down to 155. the eye is still directly over me with it's path. that's still very high, and will be worse in the center. the eye of Wilma was bad enough, so it's hard to imagine what this will be like. it's being right in the center of this that's horrifying. not the side, or one that brushes south Florida. it's a direct hit.

The storm surge chart shows water coming in pretty far. more than I thought, but most of this will be area's where people have moved out. flooding will occur where people are hunkered down, but they should be okay. east side of Fort Lauderdale airport will be affected. hopefully, people removed small aircraft. Wilma damaged a lot of them. these will be destroyed easily in this storm.

I'm keeping close tabs this morning while deciding what the next move will be for me.

[Shutter]

Sadly, the media lives for this. it's always a chance for them to shine. they are not completely bad, but put people into a panic constantly. showing the samething over and over. just like when someone is shot on camera. I feel like calling the station and asking them to show us the guy getting killed for the 91st time out of 90 views!

They have changed the long term status. it will now only be a depression in Tennessee. that's a sign of weakening. the islands are the best protection we have. I would like to see it go directly over Cuba, that would slow it down considerably. my remote doesn't seem to be working to direct this thing. it never listens to me?

[Shutter]

Well, she took a jog west. all we can hope is it continues to do that. winds are at 150, 5 mph less than previous post.the winds are picking up here, but nothing major.gusting to maybe 15..

[Shutter]

It's the final countdown...still dealing with odds and ends before calling it done..watching closely with some other people who are on the fence with staying or leaving..I'm hearing traffic is a nightmare coming out of Miami..my moms sister lives in Naples which is now in the line of fire...she's not answering her phone, so my mom is in a panic...my brother and sister are hunkered down. my sister didn't have to do much...so they seem to be fine..

The weather is starting to turn..wind picking up, rain is coming in and out. then the sun pops out...welcome to Florida 

lots of gas stations are down and waiting on fuel..the sound of circular saws can be heard everywhere cutting plywood for windows..some idiots are jogging, and riding bikes as if nothing going on?