Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 755768 times)

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3765 on: December 01, 2020, 02:50:22 PM »
Have you ever seen the actual search grid? it's not just around the area they thought he might be..I'm sure that changed as well over time.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3766 on: December 01, 2020, 03:07:43 PM »
The "oscillations" are reported in various instances at 8:10, 8:11. and 8:12. 8:12 is the last known report for the oscillations. There's no indication of where the jump/bump occurred. Again, the oscillations could have continued beyond 8:12. We just don't know.

I'm not sure we can conclude that 8:12 is the time he jumped just because that's the last time oscillations were mentioned.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3767 on: December 01, 2020, 03:09:37 PM »
Two sets of transcripts. one is behind on time because it's typed and sent.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3768 on: December 01, 2020, 03:13:17 PM »
The failure of marking the location seems to be the whole problem..
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3769 on: December 01, 2020, 03:25:03 PM »
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Two sets of transcripts. one is behind on time because it's typed and sent.
Again, the reports of the oscillations are not the same as the pressure bump. We don't know when the pressure bump happened.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3770 on: December 01, 2020, 03:34:33 PM »
I agree, but with everything else we have confusion.

Carr thought they only responded to the oscillation. 302's contradict that statement. Rat also told him 10-15 minutes after the last contact vs 5-10 minutes. then the radar report of Scholls field which would indicate a later jump time at around 8:15. one 302 connected to the drop map indicates a search area down to the Columbia. basically, you have a search area from the Lewis river to the Columbia..
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3771 on: December 01, 2020, 03:41:09 PM »
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I agree, but with everything else we have confusion.

Carr thought they only responded to the oscillation. 302's contradict that statement. Rat also told him 10-15 minutes after the last contact vs 5-10 minutes. then the radar report of Scholls field which would indicate a later jump time at around 8:15. one 302 connected to the drop map indicates a search area down to the Columbia. basically, you have a search area from the Lewis river to the Columbia..
I agree 100%. We don't know exactly when he jumped regardless of when the oscillations. The oscillations =/= the pressure bump. For all we know, Cooper made his way down the stairs around 8:11/8:12 and spent a few minutes tossing his belongs out, then stood their bouncing on the bottom stairs trying to get his nerve to jump. I'm not saying that's what happened. My point is we don't know.

As Shutter said, he could have jumped anywhere from Lake Merwin to the Columbia.
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3772 on: December 01, 2020, 03:54:53 PM »
This is why it makes it hard with a simulation. you can follow the map but if the timing is off or the jump time or position is not nailed down makes it hard to simulate anything surrounding where he jumped.
 

Offline Chaucer

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3773 on: December 01, 2020, 04:00:53 PM »
IMO, the only way to triangulate the flight path and the money find on Tena Bar is to have Cooper jump somewhere near the Columbia. I can't say what mechanics were involved, but it would make the most sense to have the money end up upstream from where it arrived in the water.

ETA: The pertinent info on the timing of the oscillations can be found in the FBI Vault Part 41, p. 31.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 04:02:08 PM by Chaucer »
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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3774 on: December 01, 2020, 04:34:50 PM »
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Quote
Several years ago, I posted information on the flight path, what is now called the Western Flight Path, and it put the airliner over Tina Bar at 8:12 PM.  That agreement surprised me.

The timing is off due to speed changes from Seattle to Toledo. plus I recall you saying the takeoff time could be wrong when I approached you with the timing issue. I'll have to check my notes.

The airliner leveled off at 10,000 feet while still north of the Malay Intersection.  A time for reaching 10,000 feet is given but not the geographical location of the aircraft. 

Nevertheless, from reaching 10,000 feet until the airliner was handed off to the Oakland Center in northern California the airliner's target or bug speed was 170 Knots Indicated Airspeed.  170 KIAS is what the airspeed indicator would read and this value must be corrected for the altitude, temperature, etc. to give the True Indicated Airspeed which was about 195 Knots.  The KTAS must be corrected for the winds aloft speed and direction to give the ground speed.

The time and location of the hand off to the Oakland Center is documented in both the Oakland and Seattle ATC radio transcripts.  I used this time and location to work backwards to determine the time that the airliner would be over Tina Bar on the Western Flight Path.  And as I have pointed out a number of times, I was surprised at the close agreement with the FBI's estimate of 8:11 PM PST.

All of the above has been discussed at length numerous times on this site and the DropZone site over the past years.

What I described above could be done by any 16 year old boy or girl who has been prepared to take the written examination for the FAA's Airplane Single Engine Land rating.  There is no vodoo involved.  It is just something that any power plane pilot learns to do before they get a power rating.

ADDENDUM:  I need to add an additional comment to the above.  In addition to the hand off time and location to the Oakland Center in northern California, a second time and location was also given in the Harrison papers and the ARINC teletype transcripts.  That location was 23 DME south of what is now the Battleground VORTAC and the time was 8:18 PM PST.  That location is actually on the western edge of V-23 as well as the Western Flight Path.  The 8:18 PM time is the time that the location was given over the ARINC radio link but the same information was transmitted by the ARINC teletype system in a message that was clicked "send" at 8:22 PM.  Some people confuse these times, but the airliner crew transmitted at 8:18 PM that they were at the DME location specified and that is the time that is to be used in these flight path calculations.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 06:26:29 PM by Robert99 »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3775 on: December 01, 2020, 07:13:16 PM »
Lots of things have been discussed over and over here as well as Dropzone. including the placard that doesn't look good at this point.


Basically, 64 nautical miles from Seattle to Malay.. 3 mile minutes would put you there in 21 minutes at 170 knots. the plane wasn't steady at 170 knots. he slowed to 155 for a period. some indicate 160. regardless of that you arrive around the same time frame at the Malay intersection. 8:00- 8:02. then another 43 miles to the Tbar area at 170 knots gives a time frame of around 14 minutes..

7:48 they start the climb to ten thousand and complete the climb at 7:54. a typo of 15,000 is reported. even the 8:22 report of 23 miles DME has an asterisk next to it which indicates a time issue.

7:36 takeoff time to 8:11 is 35 minutes. the miles are approx. 107 nautical miles. when you divide 107 into 3 it comes out to 35.6 minutes. but this isn't the case.unless the takeoff time is incorrect or speed changes. it only works on paper.

regardless of the transcripts it's 64 nautical miles from Seattle to Malay. from there it's 43 nautical miles. you break them up and it doesn't add up vs calculating simple math of 107 nautical miles divided by 3..

The transcripts and Harrison notes have the plane taking off at 7:36. it takes approx. 23 minutes to arrive at Toledo prior to turning. I think we can agree this is plausible due to speed changes. Malay is approx. two miles south of Toledo or Carlson field. this adds almost another minute giving arrival at approx 8:00 to 8:02 as worse case. then it's approx. 43 nautical miles from Malay to the Tbar area at a constant speed of 170 knots and probably a ground speed of 196. a 3 mile minute gives a time of about 14 minutes of  flight. unless a takeoff time is wrong, I can't see how this would work?

My simulator did the same with timing. 170 knots with a ground speed of 195-199 showed approx. 3 miles per minute DME.

Now, the 14 miles DME also has an asterisk on the time slot. do we know if wheels were up and a normal takeoff took place? 14 miles to 19 if not mistaken were where they slowed down and could explain the difference. SkyVector shows a distance of 61.8 miles from Seattle to Ed Carlson field with arrival of 25 minutes at 170. this area is kind of locked in, if you ask me?

SkyVector show Ed Carlson at 61.8 miles and Malay at 64.4....
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 10:59:23 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3776 on: December 01, 2020, 09:17:20 PM »
YouTube zapped the documentary I posted a couple days ago. lasted longer than I thought it would. just watched parts of it an hour or so ago..
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3777 on: December 01, 2020, 11:37:06 PM »
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Lots of things have been discussed over and over here as well as Dropzone. including the placard that doesn't look good at this point.


Basically, 64 nautical miles from Seattle to Malay.. 3 mile minutes would put you there in 21 minutes at 170 knots. the plane wasn't steady at 170 knots. he slowed to 155 for a period. some indicate 160. regardless of that you arrive around the same time frame at the Malay intersection. 8:00- 8:02. then another 43 miles to the Tbar area at 170 knots gives a time frame of around 14 minutes..

7:48 they start the climb to ten thousand and complete the climb at 7:54. a typo of 15,000 is reported. even the 8:22 report of 23 miles DME has an asterisk next to it which indicates a time issue.

7:36 takeoff time to 8:11 is 35 minutes. the miles are approx. 107 nautical miles. when you divide 107 into 3 it comes out to 35.6 minutes. but this isn't the case.unless the takeoff time is incorrect or speed changes. it only works on paper.

regardless of the transcripts it's 64 nautical miles from Seattle to Malay. from there it's 43 nautical miles. you break them up and it doesn't add up vs calculating simple math of 107 nautical miles divided by 3..

The transcripts and Harrison notes have the plane taking off at 7:36. it takes approx. 23 minutes to arrive at Toledo prior to turning. I think we can agree this is plausible due to speed changes. Malay is approx. two miles south of Toledo or Carlson field. this adds almost another minute giving arrival at approx 8:00 to 8:02 as worse case. then it's approx. 43 nautical miles from Malay to the Tbar area at a constant speed of 170 knots and probably a ground speed of 196. a 3 mile minute gives a time of about 14 minutes of  flight. unless a takeoff time is wrong, I can't see how this would work?

My simulator did the same with timing. 170 knots with a ground speed of 195-199 showed approx. 3 miles per minute DME.

Now, the 14 miles DME also has an asterisk on the time slot. do we know if wheels were up and a normal takeoff took place? 14 miles to 19 if not mistaken were where they slowed down and could explain the difference. SkyVector shows a distance of 61.8 miles from Seattle to Ed Carlson field with arrival of 25 minutes at 170. this area is kind of locked in, if you ask me?

SkyVector show Ed Carlson at 61.8 miles and Malay at 64.4....

The takeoff time was 7:36 PM PST according to Captain Scott.  He sit in on the FBI interviews of each of the crew members in Reno, which were done within a few hours of their landing there.  Everyone stated that the takeoff time was 7:36 PM.

The time at the 23 DME location was actually 8:18 PM PST according to George Harrison who was in on the ARINC radio patch with the airliner and not the 8:22 PM time that the ARINC teletype transcript was sent.

You cannot start in Seattle and arrive at any believable times and/or locations for the airliner using the available information.  The times and locations listed on the so-called FBI map are not accurate enough for determining the actual flight path.  For instance, how does the airliner fly 3 nautical miles in one minute and then in the very next minute fly 6 nautical miles while flying at a constant airspeed?

I believe Eric Ulis' book contains about 27 pages of information explaining the above.  Take a look at it.   
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 11:39:30 PM by Robert99 »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3778 on: December 01, 2020, 11:54:00 PM »
I realize the above. Harrison also notes the times with the DME at the start of the flight? the 14 miles DME has the asterisk beside it that means it's off.  your times can't be in cue with Eric's since he has him jumping approx. 10 miles north? you claim the plane is at Tbar at 8:11 while Eric would be under the 8:00 time?

I've made no claims of starting the flight other than 7:36?
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 11:54:44 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #3779 on: December 02, 2020, 12:01:43 AM »
You don't know if it was a constant speed. this was the time frame the plane slowed down and we still haven't a clue if the plane tookoff and went with wheels up till getting to 14 miles DME and slowing down?  the 19 miles DME can be reached.

One simulation test showed the 14 miles couldn't be reached at low speeds but could reach the 19 miles DME.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2020, 12:03:02 AM by Shutter »