Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 757733 times)

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2550 on: August 14, 2019, 12:49:33 AM »
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Robert was clearly wrong posting your name but you poke at people bringing things to a head. I'm not blaming anyone. I think you both should refrain from posting here to allow the room to vent.

Note that he posted my name and has done it again tonight in another post.

YOU have always published your name on your Cooper work. You never asked for any privacy. You have always promoted your name!  I HAVE NOT! 

This is childish nonsense and hypocrisy.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 12:50:23 AM by georger »
 

Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2551 on: August 14, 2019, 12:55:51 AM »
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Robert was clearly wrong posting your name but you poke at people bringing things to a head. I'm not blaming anyone. I think you both should refrain from posting here to allow the room to vent.

Note that he posted my name and has done it again tonight in another post.

YOU have always published your name on your Cooper work. You never asked for any privacy. You have always promoted your name!  I HAVE NOT! 

This is childish nonsense and hypocrisy.

When I put my name on my Cooper work, I was simply indicating that I assumed full responsibility for it and was not hiding behind a screen name.  The people in my professional circles either stand behind their work or they never publicize it in the first place.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2552 on: August 14, 2019, 12:56:19 AM »
I'm guessing the email was sent after he read the post. I can't control what happens outside of this forum. I hope it will not continue either. we have two people passionate in there beliefs. some can simply disagree while other voice out harder. hopefully some common ground can be made and we can continue to discuss the path without taking heads off.

I threw a bucket of ice on the thread. hopefully it cooled it down a bit....

 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2553 on: August 14, 2019, 01:11:29 AM »
I don't have an issue with screen names unless something of value has been put behind it such as a theory like R99. someone in the outfield is only challenging the theory or evidence. If Georger, or even myself was to come up with a theory or something game changing. I would use my name and expect everyone else the same. If I make a video of the flight path explaining every detail you will see Dave Brown (aka Shutter) behind the work.

Privacy can mean different things to different people. it becomes personal to some. I respect those who respect privacy. even if most already know that person's name. should we do away with usernames and require full names?
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2554 on: August 14, 2019, 01:13:32 AM »
I'm way behind my sack time...I hope I don't wake up to more bullshit.....

Good Evening....
 
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Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2555 on: August 15, 2019, 03:18:28 PM »
Work continues on the flight path including evaluations of the R99 placard analysis work. This mathematical work is simply too long and specialised to post, but Shutter is aware of the work and could include it in the Vault. The first evaluation of 99's placard analysis occurred in 2010 but was updated in May of 2019. The author of that work is a highly qualified person. He has done prior work on weather analysis in the Cooper case using weather data provided by the FBI. It's always nice to have qualified people willing to contribute, in an impartial objective way.

There is more being done based on prior WSHM interviews.

Stay tuned. 
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 03:18:52 PM by georger »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2556 on: August 15, 2019, 03:57:04 PM »
What is there left to re-analyze regarding the 2019 placard drift analysis? Nothing more than distance.

The bottom line is that the winds were traveling from the SW. Moreover, it is physically impossible for the placard to drift upwind.

So whether the placard drifted 14 miles or 4 miles who cares? The FBI Flight Path is off at that point. I don't see how this can possibly be debated. Of course there will be the fantasy crap about the wind actually blowing from the SE at that point. Frankly such discussions aren't worth my time.

Consider this: The FBI search area has the 220 lb Cooper drifting roughly 4 miles to the NE if he deployed immediately after jumping. What makes the placard any different?

I no longer subscribe to the Toledo-to-Canby Flight Path. However, I do subscribe to a Western Flight Path.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 03:58:12 PM by EU »
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2557 on: August 15, 2019, 04:50:09 PM »
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Work continues on the flight path including evaluations of the R99 placard analysis work. This mathematical work is simply too long and specialised to post, but Shutter is aware of the work and could include it in the Vault. The first evaluation of 99's placard analysis occurred in 2010 but was updated in May of 2019. The author of that work is a highly qualified person. He has done prior work on weather analysis in the Cooper case using weather data provided by the FBI. It's always nice to have qualified people willing to contribute, in an impartial objective way.

There is more being done based on prior WSHM interviews.

Stay tuned.

In both analyses, I used weather information provided by the National Weather Service and the airliner flight crew.  Some of this information was also included in what is referred to as the "FBI Notes".  Additional relevant information can be found on the Weather Underground site.

The latest analyses included measured winds aloft information obtained by Tom Kaye through the National Weather Service.

In analyzing the Portland area weather at the time the airliner passed through, in addition to everything else, I used a technique developed by National Weather Service personnel to evaluate the effects of humidity on the airliner performance.

The end result of all of the above is that the atmospheric density in the Portland area, and in fact all over the northwest that evening, was about two percent above standard atmosphere values.

In all of this, I let the facts speak for themselves and do not have an agenda or suspect.  There would be no problem here if some other people on this site did the same.

 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2558 on: August 15, 2019, 05:25:21 PM »
Quote
What is there left to re-analyze regarding the 2019 placard drift analysis? Nothing more than distance.


That's about right. distance is critical while determining a flight path. the winds are really hard to pinpoint and use as fact from 48 years ago. every controller I spoke with laughed at even trying to get them right. it's a possibility only. they are probably close. the placard doesn't have a drop point to go by unlike the dropzone. the placard was found 7 years after the fact. look how hard it is just trying to place the plane somewhere 48 years later with more proof than just finding a decal on the ground?

The placard has issues just like the rest of the case. ZERO documents have surfaced surrounding the placard. we only have media reports and those conflict. first they claim the placard was missing two days after the plane landed. then they claim it was noticed missing after testing. the only testing on record is away from the path.

A noticeable hole in the wall should of been documented while searching the plane. we don't hear anything except he had trouble with the stairs. one 302 mentions searching behind the panels in the stair area with a possibility Cooper hid behind them and escaped later. they describe the wall and only note the one lever for activating the stairs. those decals should be similar to bumper stickers or the one's you get after being towed or left on the side of the road. extremely hard to get off. to date we just don't know if they really determined it came from 305. no documents anywhere.

The 23 DME miles keeps the plane to a local area. the further west you go, the more problems you will have. a straight line to Eugene is not possible. if the plane was one mile west of V23 does the placard still calculate?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 05:27:49 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2559 on: August 15, 2019, 06:28:03 PM »
The good thing is that we're getting close to release of the placard-related FBI files. We're up to 1977 now and the placard was found in November 1978.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2560 on: August 15, 2019, 06:54:32 PM »
files already exist going into the 90's. Tom said he didn't see anything related to the placard. it's possible it never made the trip to Seattle and Cowlitz tossed it away since they have no records that far back.

several from 76 and two from 78 just prior to November and several from the start of 1979. there were 3 sets of 302's. I doubt we will get them all.
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2561 on: August 15, 2019, 11:49:37 PM »
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What is there left to re-analyze regarding the 2019 placard drift analysis? Nothing more than distance.

The bottom line is that the winds were traveling from the SW. Moreover, it is physically impossible for the placard to drift upwind.

So whether the placard drifted 14 miles or 4 miles who cares? The FBI Flight Path is off at that point. I don't see how this can possibly be debated. Of course there will be the fantasy crap about the wind actually blowing from the SE at that point. Frankly such discussions aren't worth my time.

Consider this: The FBI search area has the 220 lb Cooper drifting roughly 4 miles to the NE if he deployed immediately after jumping. What makes the placard any different?

I no longer subscribe to the Toledo-to-Canby Flight Path. However, I do subscribe to a Western Flight Path.

I no longer subscribe to the Toledo-to-Canby Flight Path. However, I do subscribe to a Western Flight Path.

But where does R99 stand? R99 is the real force behind all of this!

I think we all agree where Cooper bailed, is crucial to the Cooper story, and the money challenge. If he bailed near Ariel that poses problems. If he bailed where the H revision said in 1976, 12mi north of Portland, then there are problems. The closer you can bring Cooper to the active Columbia basin, that changes the focus of all money issues. ... I will just stop there.. we all know the various claims on the table being bet, unless it has changed since two days ago?

Keep us posted!
 ;D
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 12:01:27 AM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2562 on: August 16, 2019, 12:07:26 AM »
Roberts theory makes very good sound aeronautical sense. even with his change from east to west still puts the plane near V23 and the Canby intersection. with the 23 miles DME makes moving the path west very hard from that position. even from Kelso straight down via Eugene. that puts the plane 25-26 miles DME from Portland VOR.  either way with east or west the timing is not much different. it's the documentation that presents a problem.
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2563 on: August 16, 2019, 12:08:27 AM »
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files already exist going into the 90's. Tom said he didn't see anything related to the placard. it's possible it never made the trip to Seattle and Cowlitz tossed it away since they have no records that far back.

several from 76 and two from 78 just prior to November and several from the start of 1979. there were 3 sets of 302's. I doubt we will get them all.

Has there ever been anything, any file, any suggestion by whomever ... that someone at the FAA worked on the flight path? Is there any reason to look beyond McChord and NWA people? 
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #2564 on: August 16, 2019, 12:10:46 AM »
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Roberts theory makes very good sound aeronautical sense. even with his change from east to west still puts the plane near V23 and the Canby intersection. with the 23 miles DME makes moving the path west very hard from that position. even from Kelso straight down via Eugene. that puts the plane 25-26 miles DME from Portland VOR.  either way with east or west the timing is not much different. it's the documentation that presents a problem.

I think I see and understand the reasoning.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 12:14:49 AM by georger »