Author Topic: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes  (Read 56595 times)

Offline andrade1812

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2014, 06:33:15 PM »
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Why not attribute the FBI's bungling to malice? What's your proof there is no malice?

Parsimony, people are far more likely to be apathetic than they are to be malicious. It's Occam's razor.

Robert99: I read through many of your posts and generally agree, in free fall, Cooper would be unstable. But if Cooper was an inexperienced jumper, military trained, then I would gather he would act like other inexperienced military jumpers. Here's You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login of guys bailing out of a B-17, they are pulling their ripcords literally as they are entering the slipstream. Only a skydiver would want to free fall, which is why I was skeptical of most of the skydiver analysis of the jump.


 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2014, 07:10:53 PM »
Andrade, you forgot to post the pic.....
 

Offline andrade1812

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2014, 08:16:45 PM »
I linked to it, no big deal...
 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2014, 08:39:31 PM »
Andrade:
"...The FBI aren't scientists..."


Well, then what are they?

You gotta tell us what you think of the FBI, Andrade, because you paint them with a very broad brush...

 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2014, 08:42:31 PM »
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Why not attribute the FBI's bungling to malice? What's your proof there is no malice?

Parsimony, people are far more likely to be apathetic than they are to be malicious. It's Occam's razor.


Even in felony cases where the case agents are earning 90K a year?
 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2014, 08:46:56 PM »
Andrade:
"...It's Occam's razor.

Robert99: I read through many of your posts and generally agree, in free fall, Cooper would be unstable. But if Cooper was an inexperienced jumper, military trained, then I would gather he would act like other inexperienced military jumpers. Here's You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login of guys bailing out of a B-17, they are pulling their ripcords literally as they are entering the slipstream. Only a skydiver would want to free fall, which is why I was skeptical of most of the skydiver analysis of the jump."



What does Occam say about Martin McNally or Richard LaPoint? The prior made a successful getaway to his hijacking even though he had to be shown how to put on a parachute, and LaPoint jumped in January in Colorado, landing in the snow successfully despite wearing only a shirt and slacks.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2014, 08:48:14 PM by Bruce A. Smith »
 

Offline nmiwrecks

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2014, 09:48:43 PM »
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What does Occam say about Martin McNally or Richard LaPoint? The prior made a successful getaway to his hijacking even though he had to be shown how to put on a parachute, and LaPoint jumped in January in Colorado, landing in the snow successfully despite wearing only a shirt and slacks.
One would think that if every jumper made it, some with no skills and in bad weather, that the survival rate of these types of jumps would be 100%, with no chance of failure.  I take anther tact, though.  Because of the difficulty of these jumps, maybe the survival rate would be 75% or 80%, meaning one of the jumpers was bound to die.  Maybe the one they can't find?    Maybe there is something to back up this idea?  Like part of the ransom money found years later near a body of water?
"If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got." - Henry Ford
 

Offline andrade1812

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2014, 10:29:48 PM »
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One would think that if every jumper made it, some with no skills and in bad weather, that the survival rate of these types of jumps would be 100%, with no chance of failure.  I take anther tact, though.  Because of the difficulty of these jumps, maybe the survival rate would be 75% or 80%, meaning one of the jumpers was bound to die.

This is an example of the Gambler's fallacy, we can't assume one person dies just because the odds say "1 in 5 die" anymore than we can claim a coin that lands heads up three times in a row has to come up "tails" in the next flip.

Quote
Andrade:
"...The FBI aren't scientists..."


Well, then what are they?

You gotta tell us what you think of the FBI, Andrade, because you paint them with a very broad brush...

The Bureau recruits heavily from recent college graduates, focusing on accountants, CompSci/IT, Language specialists and Law degree holders. So that's what I think... they're accountants, computer guys, foreign language nerds and proto-lawyers.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2014, 10:38:08 PM »
A radio program is in the link vault with Agent Carr. when he explains certain points of the DNA he says he's not a scientist....
 

Robert99

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2014, 10:54:23 PM »
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Why not attribute the FBI's bungling to malice? What's your proof there is no malice?

Parsimony, people are far more likely to be apathetic than they are to be malicious. It's Occam's razor.

Robert99: I read through many of your posts and generally agree, in free fall, Cooper would be unstable. But if Cooper was an inexperienced jumper, military trained, then I would gather he would act like other inexperienced military jumpers. Here's You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login of guys bailing out of a B-17, they are pulling their ripcords literally as they are entering the slipstream. Only a skydiver would want to free fall, which is why I was skeptical of most of the skydiver analysis of the jump.

That B-17 appears to be less than 2000 feet above the ground and probably going quite slow when the crew was bailing out and immediately opening their parachutes.  The two engines on the right wing may be shut down, but I don't see any fire or apparent structural damage to the aircraft.  But the crew is jumping for some good reason.  If the crew had bailed out at 20,000 or 30,000 feet, they would (in accordance with their training) have done a free fall down to about 10,000 feet.  That would get them down fast to an altitude where they didn't need supplemental oxygen and the temperature was usually quite a bit warmer.  And the crew members would definitely remember the bone rattling shock when they did open their parachutes after that free fall.

Cooper jumped at night and when the airliner was above an overcast and several cloud layers.  He would probably not be able to see any lights on the ground until he was below the clouds and he was probably tumbling at that point anyway.   
 

Robert99

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #25 on: December 01, 2014, 11:01:53 PM »
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A radio program is in the link vault with Agent Carr. when he explains certain points of the DNA he says he's not a scientist....

I understand that the FBI recruits personnel with previous law enforcement experience as well.  They would probably be  the field agents who kick down the doors.  The "scientists" would probably be the crime scene investigators and probably have a different job title. 
 
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Offline andrade1812

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2014, 01:20:53 AM »


Quote
That B-17 appears to be less than 2000 feet above the ground and probably going quite slow when the crew was bailing out and immediately opening their parachutes.  The two engines on the right wing may be shut down, but I don't see any fire or apparent structural damage to the aircraft.  But the crew is jumping for some good reason.  If the crew had bailed out at 20,000 or 30,000 feet, they would (in accordance with their training) have done a free fall down to about 10,000 feet.  That would get them down fast to an altitude where they didn't need supplemental oxygen and the temperature was usually quite a bit warmer.  And the crew members would definitely remember the bone rattling shock when they did open their parachutes after that free fall.

Cooper jumped at night and when the airliner was above an overcast and several cloud layers.  He would probably not be able to see any lights on the ground until he was below the clouds and he was probably tumbling at that point anyway.   

I didn't mean for a single photograph to be definitive. As someone with no jumping experience, my inclination if I was put in Cooper's shoes would be to pull that ripcord as soon as I cleared the aircraft. I wish there was an easily referenced collection of WWII bailout anecdotes to be sure, but my gut instinct is most of those guys weren't interested in freefalling. Regardless, until someone collects all those anecdotes, it's speculation.

Here is the case I would present for a Cooper "early pull" (not "squidding"):

-He wanted the stairs down on takeoff, signifying he wanted to jump soon after takeoff
-He was trying to jump before the plane had finished its ascent to 10,000ft, and was only delayed by his unfamiliarity with the airstairs and how they deployed in flight.

So, if he wanted off that aircraft as it was ascending, then he was not planning on a lot of free fall and was more likely to pull early.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2014, 01:21:43 AM by andrade1812 »
 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2014, 01:31:31 AM »
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One would think that if every jumper made it, some with no skills and in bad weather, that the survival rate of these types of jumps would be 100%, with no chance of failure.  I take anther tact, though.  Because of the difficulty of these jumps, maybe the survival rate would be 75% or 80%, meaning one of the jumpers was bound to die.

This is an example of the Gambler's fallacy, we can't assume one person dies just because the odds say "1 in 5 die" anymore than we can claim a coin that lands heads up three times in a row has to come up "tails" in the next flip.

Quote
Andrade:
"...The FBI aren't scientists..."


Well, then what are they?

You gotta tell us what you think of the FBI, Andrade, because you paint them with a very broad brush...

The Bureau recruits heavily from recent college graduates, focusing on accountants, CompSci/IT, Language specialists and Law degree holders. So that's what I think... they're accountants, computer guys, foreign language nerds and proto-lawyers.

Forensic investigations are not science? Careful, thorough police work is not science?

Solid investigative journalism is not science? 

I don't think so.
 

Offline Bruce A. Smith

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #28 on: December 02, 2014, 01:34:36 AM »
When someone says "they're not a scientist," like Larry Carr in his video, I think it is a veiled way of saying:

 "I hope it's okay that I'm lazy and didn't do the research on this subject. I know I failed to contact the people who are experts in this field so I can't give you a substantive, valuable commentary, and I hope that's okay with you."
 

Robert99

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Re: Two Back Packs & Two Front Chutes
« Reply #29 on: December 02, 2014, 01:07:03 PM »
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When someone says "they're not a scientist," like Larry Carr in his video, I think it is a veiled way of saying:

 "I hope it's okay that I'm lazy and didn't do the research on this subject. I know I failed to contact the people who are experts in this field so I can't give you a substantive, valuable commentary, and I hope that's okay with you."

Then again, maybe Larry Carr was saying that he was one of the FBI agents who chased down the bank robbers and that didn't leave him much time to visit Quantico and peer through a microscope or to socialize with the people who never got outside of a laboratory.