Author Topic: The Cooper Vortex Podcast  (Read 34617 times)

Offline andrade1812

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #300 on: October 26, 2021, 11:21:21 AM »
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Our latest episode is out now!

DB Cooper’s Jump From the 727 with pilot, skydiver, and YouTuber Dan Gryder.

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Let me know what you think!

I would like to make a wager that Gryder has not solved the case to Darren's satisfaction... and a side bet as to who his suspect is.
 
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Offline fcastle866

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #301 on: October 26, 2021, 12:12:45 PM »
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Our latest episode is out now!

DB Cooper’s Jump From the 727 with pilot, skydiver, and YouTuber Dan Gryder.

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Let me know what you think!

I would like to make a wager that Gryder has not solved the case to Darren's satisfaction... and a side bet as to who his suspect is.

Good podcast.  I don't see 99% of us thinking his suspect is Cooper, unless it is someone new who totally blows people away and there is evidence with it.  If it is an already known suspect, then I definitely don't see many of us buying into it.  I sense that people may already know who his suspect his having communicated with him in the past.  I first  heard about him just a few days ago, maybe a week, so I don't really know who he might name.  Seems like a real positive type of person, but I don't see anything out of the ordinary here.  It won't be Weber.  If it is one of the usual suspects (McCoy, Rackstraw) then whatever.
 
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Offline JAG

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #302 on: October 26, 2021, 12:16:13 PM »
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Our latest episode is out now!

DB Cooper’s Jump From the 727 with pilot, skydiver, and YouTuber Dan Gryder.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Let me know what you think!

I would like to make a wager that Gryder has not solved the case to Darren's satisfaction... and a side bet as to who his suspect is.

If nothing else comes out of it, it sounds as though he has a lot of video interviews with key people (RH and BR) so maybe there will be some more information/data to parse.

When Darren was talking about certain suspects not fitting the age profile that the eye witnesses estimated, I think Rackstraw and McCoy, he started to down play Tina's ability to accurately estimate a characteristic such as age.  He also indicated he believes that Cooper was using significant disguise tactics, certainly a reasonable assertion.   So my guess is his suspect is probably someone younger than the 40 to 55 age range.  Was it Parrothead or 377 who mentioned last week that he thought Dan's suspect was McCoy ?
 
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Offline Parrotheadvol

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #303 on: October 26, 2021, 04:56:44 PM »
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Our latest episode is out now!

DB Cooper’s Jump From the 727 with pilot, skydiver, and YouTuber Dan Gryder.

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Let me know what you think!

I would like to make a wager that Gryder has not solved the case to Darren's satisfaction... and a side bet as to who his suspect is.

If nothing else comes out of it, it sounds as though he has a lot of video interviews with key people (RH and BR) so maybe there will be some more information/data to parse.

When Darren was talking about certain suspects not fitting the age profile that the eye witnesses estimated, I think Rackstraw and McCoy, he started to down play Tina's ability to accurately estimate a characteristic such as age.  He also indicated he believes that Cooper was using significant disguise tactics, certainly a reasonable assertion.   So my guess is his suspect is probably someone younger than the 40 to 55 age range.  Was it Parrothead or 377 who mentioned last week that he thought Dan's suspect was McCoy ?

I was the one who thought Dan's suspect was McCoy. I may be way off base though. A few years ago (probably 2011 - 2014, I don't recall exactly), Gryder had a video on Youtube and he also posted a link to the video at the DZ. In the video he was seated at a table in a bank with two women who were bank employees. On the table was $200,000 in cash and some other items. I think he had a parachute but I don't recall everything that he had there. But he said that he would soon reveal who Cooper was and what happened to him. He said that everything you see in the video there in front of him is all that you need to solve the case. One of the items he had was what he referred to as a "simulated gun". McCoy used a gun in his hijacking and used a fake gun made out of dental paste during his prison escape. That is the reason that I have always thought his guy was McCoy. I may be reading too much into it. The video was taken down a few years ago.
 
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Offline Darren

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #304 on: October 31, 2021, 10:46:29 PM »
New episode out now! DB Cooper is no Robin Hood with Clarke Mayer.

Enjoy!

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The Cooper Vortex - A Podcast about DB Cooper - Available on most podcast apps
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Offline georger

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #305 on: November 01, 2021, 02:47:34 PM »
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New episode out now! DB Cooper is no Robin Hood with Clarke Mayer.

Enjoy!

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Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar, and not a camel !
 

Offline Lynn

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #306 on: November 06, 2021, 04:48:28 AM »
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New episode out tonight. DB Cooper’s safety deposit box with Tim Collins aka SafecrackingPLF.

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Enjoy!

I’ve got some other great guests coming up, but I’m still waiting on a few of you guys to come on. If you’re on the fence I’d say maybe ask some one that’s been on, how their experience was. This show will last a pretty long time, but I’m not going to be doing it much longer. I’m talking to you Georger, Flyjack, Parrothead, shutter, and snowmman.

3 hours is a lot to listen to.  Anyone know when he talks about Bayes or if he talks about Max Gunther?  Here are some comments on the parts I've listened to, and response to some of the posts on DZ.

Tim seems like a reasonable person. I like the approach of narrowing the field so to say, but I question some of the math.  He starts off taking a total US population of 225 million, then the next step is taking into account male smokers, then somewhere in there is wavy hair, pocket knife ownership, etc.  I don't think you can multiply the percentage of male smokers by the total population. You need to multiply the percentage of male smokers by the total male population.

The flaw in this is the overlap of what I would call conditions.  There is double counting going on.  If I take all the pocket knife owners, with wavy hair, with swarthy complexions, who smoked, then I might have more than the total population.  It would be like me adding together all the people in the US with high blood pressure and then adding in all the people who are overweight and who don't exercise.  These symptoms overlap, in that someone who has high blood pressure is also likely to not exercise, so I can only really count them once.  I learned this in detail when looking at populations to recruit from for military service.  We found that much of American youth had multiple disqualifying conditions, and that 18 year olds with criminal records often had poor grades and tested poorly on aptitude tests.  So even if we got them to prepare for the aptitude test and do well, it did not change the fact that they had other issues. Comorbid would be the medical term.

I do believe in narrowing the field, but would look at it a little differently.  Something in this order:

1.  Take the total male population in the US around 1970.  Make the assumption he was American. Add in Canada if you want.  He was not female.
2.  Take his age.  In 1970 there were about 25M males between the age of 35 and 60.
3.  Take out those who did not serve in the military (again an assumption)
4.  Take out East Asian, African American, and any other groups that he certainly was not a member of
5.  Now try to figure in smokers.  Take out PhDs, maybe take out Masters level.  Take out eye colors if you'd like.

It gets tricky when you start looking at overlaps, like brown eyes who served in the military who are of the right age.  But, you can definitely whittle down the total number.  But you can't get it down to 19 people like the podcast guest did.  Duane Weber is one of thousands of American males, maybe 10s of thousands that fit Cooper's description.  How does this help right now? It probably does not. But in the future with enough databases, the field can be narrowed.  Ancestry.com can do a lot simply by using the census data.  How many males, aged 35-60, of European descent, who lived in a certain area, who served in the military, etc.  It can be done.  And that then gives you the list of who's DNA to look at.  Possible, but not probable given our privacy laws.

Georger: Good points on DZ about probability.  Simple probability works.  How many times did a plane flying South on that route make the turn to the West?  To use probability we need to know what distribution to use, as in uniform, normal, Poisson, etc.  It is a complicated field, but it is often used to overcomplicate things. The parachute probably opened.  It probably got him to the ground.  But if we want to use Bayes and figure out what the probability of the chute getting him to the ground given the probability that it opened, then great.

I'm all for using math like in the podcast, but there needs to be a balance with common sense.  There are a lot of basic facts in this case that don't need to be made more complex.  I have graduate level classes in probability for engineers, and I can say that it is a very complex field.  Maybe not to the level of physics, but complex.  So it is easy for people to throw out a bunch of concepts that confuse or make people disengage.  I just don't see the need for deep complex math here.  Maybe some algebra, but not calculus so to say.  Well maybe a little calculus. :)

Last thing.  The podcast mentions left hand smoker.  Were there nicotine stains on both hands or just one, and if one, then which hand?
I don't believe nicotine stains were mentioned - some smokers don't have them, even heavy smokers. There's also the possibility he was an occasional, stress-only smoker, or acting the smoker to throw ppl off - most smokers carry a lighter, and did then, often Zippos or other refillable ones (knew a very hairy guy who set his hand on fire that way) only bothering with matches if the lighter quits. Which of course may have happened. The ciggies he smoked were cheap and had coupons you could redeem for more smokes, I think.

I don't think his smoking left-handed means anything; his right hand was on the bomb, and I think he would have had his dominant hand there. I've been a smoker and smoked with my left hand if I was writing or using the mouse with my right.

Your list of attributes seems reasonable. He certainly wasn't of North or East Asian or African descent. Military is also reasonable given the time in history, when ppl were alive who'd served in WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. Canada or America works - my American friends say they wouldn't know I was Canadian by accent, though ppl have figured it out online at times by spelling.

Brown eye colour I'm not convinced about. Flo was the only one who said she saw his eyes, and "brown" was changed to "possibly brown" or something like that in the released description. Dim lighting could also have affected how people in different parts of the plane perceived his hair and clothing colours. Tina's description is obviously favoured as she spent the most time with him, followed by Bill Mitchell's early statements as someone who was nearby and did notice and study him out of youthful jealousy.
 

Offline georger

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #307 on: November 06, 2021, 11:16:02 PM »
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New episode out tonight. DB Cooper’s safety deposit box with Tim Collins aka SafecrackingPLF.

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Enjoy!

I’ve got some other great guests coming up, but I’m still waiting on a few of you guys to come on. If you’re on the fence I’d say maybe ask some one that’s been on, how their experience was. This show will last a pretty long time, but I’m not going to be doing it much longer. I’m talking to you Georger, Flyjack, Parrothead, shutter, and snowmman.

3 hours is a lot to listen to.  Anyone know when he talks about Bayes or if he talks about Max Gunther?  Here are some comments on the parts I've listened to, and response to some of the posts on DZ.

Tim seems like a reasonable person. I like the approach of narrowing the field so to say, but I question some of the math.  He starts off taking a total US population of 225 million, then the next step is taking into account male smokers, then somewhere in there is wavy hair, pocket knife ownership, etc.  I don't think you can multiply the percentage of male smokers by the total population. You need to multiply the percentage of male smokers by the total male population.

The flaw in this is the overlap of what I would call conditions.  There is double counting going on.  If I take all the pocket knife owners, with wavy hair, with swarthy complexions, who smoked, then I might have more than the total population.  It would be like me adding together all the people in the US with high blood pressure and then adding in all the people who are overweight and who don't exercise.  These symptoms overlap, in that someone who has high blood pressure is also likely to not exercise, so I can only really count them once.  I learned this in detail when looking at populations to recruit from for military service.  We found that much of American youth had multiple disqualifying conditions, and that 18 year olds with criminal records often had poor grades and tested poorly on aptitude tests.  So even if we got them to prepare for the aptitude test and do well, it did not change the fact that they had other issues. Comorbid would be the medical term.

I do believe in narrowing the field, but would look at it a little differently.  Something in this order:

1.  Take the total male population in the US around 1970.  Make the assumption he was American. Add in Canada if you want.  He was not female.
2.  Take his age.  In 1970 there were about 25M males between the age of 35 and 60.
3.  Take out those who did not serve in the military (again an assumption)
4.  Take out East Asian, African American, and any other groups that he certainly was not a member of
5.  Now try to figure in smokers.  Take out PhDs, maybe take out Masters level.  Take out eye colors if you'd like.

It gets tricky when you start looking at overlaps, like brown eyes who served in the military who are of the right age.  But, you can definitely whittle down the total number.  But you can't get it down to 19 people like the podcast guest did.  Duane Weber is one of thousands of American males, maybe 10s of thousands that fit Cooper's description.  How does this help right now? It probably does not. But in the future with enough databases, the field can be narrowed.  Ancestry.com can do a lot simply by using the census data.  How many males, aged 35-60, of European descent, who lived in a certain area, who served in the military, etc.  It can be done.  And that then gives you the list of who's DNA to look at.  Possible, but not probable given our privacy laws.

Georger: Good points on DZ about probability.  Simple probability works.  How many times did a plane flying South on that route make the turn to the West?  To use probability we need to know what distribution to use, as in uniform, normal, Poisson, etc.  It is a complicated field, but it is often used to overcomplicate things. The parachute probably opened.  It probably got him to the ground.  But if we want to use Bayes and figure out what the probability of the chute getting him to the ground given the probability that it opened, then great.

I'm all for using math like in the podcast, but there needs to be a balance with common sense.  There are a lot of basic facts in this case that don't need to be made more complex.  I have graduate level classes in probability for engineers, and I can say that it is a very complex field.  Maybe not to the level of physics, but complex.  So it is easy for people to throw out a bunch of concepts that confuse or make people disengage.  I just don't see the need for deep complex math here.  Maybe some algebra, but not calculus so to say.  Well maybe a little calculus. :)

Last thing.  The podcast mentions left hand smoker.  Were there nicotine stains on both hands or just one, and if one, then which hand?
I don't believe nicotine stains were mentioned - some smokers don't have them, even heavy smokers. There's also the possibility he was an occasional, stress-only smoker, or acting the smoker to throw ppl off - most smokers carry a lighter, and did then, often Zippos or other refillable ones (knew a very hairy guy who set his hand on fire that way) only bothering with matches if the lighter quits. Which of course may have happened. The ciggies he smoked were cheap and had coupons you could redeem for more smokes, I think.

I don't think his smoking left-handed means anything; his right hand was on the bomb, and I think he would have had his dominant hand there. I've been a smoker and smoked with my left hand if I was writing or using the mouse with my right.

Your list of attributes seems reasonable. He certainly wasn't of North or East Asian or African descent. Military is also reasonable given the time in history, when ppl were alive who'd served in WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. Canada or America works - my American friends say they wouldn't know I was Canadian by accent, though ppl have figured it out online at times by spelling.

Brown eye colour I'm not convinced about. Flo was the only one who said she saw his eyes, and "brown" was changed to "possibly brown" or something like that in the released description. Dim lighting could also have affected how people in different parts of the plane perceived his hair and clothing colours. Tina's description is obviously favoured as she spent the most time with him, followed by Bill Mitchell's early statements as someone who was nearby and did notice and study him out of youthful jealousy.

Smoke, smoking stains, and tobacco could have had high forensic value. Cuban cigars vs Raleighs ? Finger nails, teeth, lung tissue, . . . years of smoking are impossible to erase. 
 

Offline fcastle866

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #308 on: November 07, 2021, 12:40:06 PM »
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New episode out tonight. DB Cooper’s safety deposit box with Tim Collins aka SafecrackingPLF.

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Enjoy!

I’ve got some other great guests coming up, but I’m still waiting on a few of you guys to come on. If you’re on the fence I’d say maybe ask some one that’s been on, how their experience was. This show will last a pretty long time, but I’m not going to be doing it much longer. I’m talking to you Georger, Flyjack, Parrothead, shutter, and snowmman.

3 hours is a lot to listen to.  Anyone know when he talks about Bayes or if he talks about Max Gunther?  Here are some comments on the parts I've listened to, and response to some of the posts on DZ.

Tim seems like a reasonable person. I like the approach of narrowing the field so to say, but I question some of the math.  He starts off taking a total US population of 225 million, then the next step is taking into account male smokers, then somewhere in there is wavy hair, pocket knife ownership, etc.  I don't think you can multiply the percentage of male smokers by the total population. You need to multiply the percentage of male smokers by the total male population.

The flaw in this is the overlap of what I would call conditions.  There is double counting going on.  If I take all the pocket knife owners, with wavy hair, with swarthy complexions, who smoked, then I might have more than the total population.  It would be like me adding together all the people in the US with high blood pressure and then adding in all the people who are overweight and who don't exercise.  These symptoms overlap, in that someone who has high blood pressure is also likely to not exercise, so I can only really count them once.  I learned this in detail when looking at populations to recruit from for military service.  We found that much of American youth had multiple disqualifying conditions, and that 18 year olds with criminal records often had poor grades and tested poorly on aptitude tests.  So even if we got them to prepare for the aptitude test and do well, it did not change the fact that they had other issues. Comorbid would be the medical term.

I do believe in narrowing the field, but would look at it a little differently.  Something in this order:

1.  Take the total male population in the US around 1970.  Make the assumption he was American. Add in Canada if you want.  He was not female.
2.  Take his age.  In 1970 there were about 25M males between the age of 35 and 60.
3.  Take out those who did not serve in the military (again an assumption)
4.  Take out East Asian, African American, and any other groups that he certainly was not a member of
5.  Now try to figure in smokers.  Take out PhDs, maybe take out Masters level.  Take out eye colors if you'd like.

It gets tricky when you start looking at overlaps, like brown eyes who served in the military who are of the right age.  But, you can definitely whittle down the total number.  But you can't get it down to 19 people like the podcast guest did.  Duane Weber is one of thousands of American males, maybe 10s of thousands that fit Cooper's description.  How does this help right now? It probably does not. But in the future with enough databases, the field can be narrowed.  Ancestry.com can do a lot simply by using the census data.  How many males, aged 35-60, of European descent, who lived in a certain area, who served in the military, etc.  It can be done.  And that then gives you the list of who's DNA to look at.  Possible, but not probable given our privacy laws.

Georger: Good points on DZ about probability.  Simple probability works.  How many times did a plane flying South on that route make the turn to the West?  To use probability we need to know what distribution to use, as in uniform, normal, Poisson, etc.  It is a complicated field, but it is often used to overcomplicate things. The parachute probably opened.  It probably got him to the ground.  But if we want to use Bayes and figure out what the probability of the chute getting him to the ground given the probability that it opened, then great.

I'm all for using math like in the podcast, but there needs to be a balance with common sense.  There are a lot of basic facts in this case that don't need to be made more complex.  I have graduate level classes in probability for engineers, and I can say that it is a very complex field.  Maybe not to the level of physics, but complex.  So it is easy for people to throw out a bunch of concepts that confuse or make people disengage.  I just don't see the need for deep complex math here.  Maybe some algebra, but not calculus so to say.  Well maybe a little calculus. :)

Last thing.  The podcast mentions left hand smoker.  Were there nicotine stains on both hands or just one, and if one, then which hand?
I don't believe nicotine stains were mentioned - some smokers don't have them, even heavy smokers. There's also the possibility he was an occasional, stress-only smoker, or acting the smoker to throw ppl off - most smokers carry a lighter, and did then, often Zippos or other refillable ones (knew a very hairy guy who set his hand on fire that way) only bothering with matches if the lighter quits. Which of course may have happened. The ciggies he smoked were cheap and had coupons you could redeem for more smokes, I think.

I don't think his smoking left-handed means anything; his right hand was on the bomb, and I think he would have had his dominant hand there. I've been a smoker and smoked with my left hand if I was writing or using the mouse with my right.

Your list of attributes seems reasonable. He certainly wasn't of North or East Asian or African descent. Military is also reasonable given the time in history, when ppl were alive who'd served in WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. Canada or America works - my American friends say they wouldn't know I was Canadian by accent, though ppl have figured it out online at times by spelling.

Brown eye colour I'm not convinced about. Flo was the only one who said she saw his eyes, and "brown" was changed to "possibly brown" or something like that in the released description. Dim lighting could also have affected how people in different parts of the plane perceived his hair and clothing colours. Tina's description is obviously favoured as she spent the most time with him, followed by Bill Mitchell's early statements as someone who was nearby and did notice and study him out of youthful jealousy.

Post on DZ mentions cigarette stains via Himmelsbach, and a 302.  You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

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-https://www.dropzone.com/forums/topic/56036-db-cooper/?do=findComment&comment=4955526-
-https://www.dropzone.com/forums/topic/56036-db-cooper/?do=findComment&comment=4952992-

Whether this is accurate or not, it is mentioned enough times.  I believe Cooper was a smoker, heavy enough to be comfortable with it.  Not unusual for a man of that age and time, especially if he had served in the military and worked a laborers/blue collar type job.  Raleigh was not a high end cigarette.

The right hand/left hand thing.  Like anything in life, there are always exceptions to the rule, but in general people smoke with their dominant hand.
 

Offline Darren

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #309 on: November 07, 2021, 09:10:53 PM »
Dr Robert Edwards DB Cooper and Flight 305 will be out November 24th, but you can listen to him on my show now.

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The Cooper Vortex - A Podcast about DB Cooper - Available on most podcast apps
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Offline georger

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #310 on: November 08, 2021, 01:22:38 AM »
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Dr Robert Edwards DB Cooper and Flight 305 will be out November 24th, but you can listen to him on my show now.

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Informative. Probably a landmark work. Would love to know what his thoughts on diatoms were - will buy his book.

The next important interview you do pick a quite place! 
« Last Edit: November 08, 2021, 02:55:01 AM by georger »
 
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Offline Dfs346

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #311 on: November 08, 2021, 03:15:17 AM »
The book has a chapter on diatoms, with input from Claudia Tausz who wrote her master's thesis on diatoms in the Columbia River. This chapter also includes an analysis of diatom sites in the Columbia/Willamette basin, based on the USGS BIODATA database, focussing on asterionella and fragilaria genera.
 
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Offline JAG

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #312 on: November 08, 2021, 07:09:32 AM »
Very interesting, I am going to have to listen to this a few more times. 

- The point was made that the conditions under which the sled test were conducted were different from the hijacking in terms of altitude (7000 ft vs 10,000 ft), and that the cockpit door was open instead of closed.  But I couldn't exactly get if he was saying that the results are invalid?  Was he saying that the pressure bump may not have been when Coop jumped ? 

- He has a different drop zone, I believe based on different analysis or interpretation of the winds aloft vs the wind changing at lower altitudes, maybe some additional data ?  But was it based on the ~8:11pm jump ?  If so, I thought he was implying that the bump may not be the jump marker ?

- Also sounds like he challenged the idea:
  - That the money sinks and cannot be transported long distances via river flow
  - That the specific diatoms found are only found directly in the Colombia

Anyway, it was a good tease for his book...I'm sure I will be picking it up at some point.
 
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Offline Chaucer

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #313 on: November 08, 2021, 01:47:44 PM »
I listened to the podcast this morning.

JAG's review is pretty much spot on. What I will say is that it seems that some of his conclusions will ruffle the feathers of some high-profile investigators as they challenge some long-held beliefs.

I am looking forward to reading the book and seeing the data for myself.
 
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Offline georger

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Re: The Cooper Vortex Podcast
« Reply #314 on: November 08, 2021, 02:25:54 PM »
Years ago I tried to get the statistician John Allen Paulos interested in the Cooper case, to no avail. John is the author of "Innumeracy": You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login    I am sure Edwards knows who Paulos is. This could become very interesting. Edward's ability to challenge long held assumptions is long overdue. It's long passed due. 

I have felt for a long time that the Cooper case was sliding into oblivion - Edwards may just have saved it!

Edwards is a breath of fresh air.  :congrats:
« Last Edit: November 08, 2021, 02:37:48 PM by georger »
 
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