Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 184193 times)

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1770 on: April 15, 2019, 02:13:48 AM »
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Another person with demonstrated avionics skills, says:

"I see nothing inconsistent between the info about placard find location and the
"FBI" flight path, largely because neither is precise and we also don't have precise info
on the atmospheric conditions at the applicable time and position."

The person above ran his own analysis equally complete to what R99 has run, or any other individual. There are just too many unknowns ... did the placard ice up or was it moisture loaded which would affect its trajectory. The aerodynamic options available are too many and unknown.  All of that said -

""I see nothing inconsistent between the info about placard find location and the
"FBI" flight path, largely because neither is precise and we also don't have precise info
on the atmospheric conditions at the applicable time and position."

I still haven't had time to redo the analysis using Tom's new information.  But I will get to it in the next few days and it will be more complex than the previous ones.

Your friend is right that neither the FBI flight path nor the placard analysis is precise.  However, I did a rather thorough analysis of the atmospheric conditions in the Portland/Vancouver area about 10 years ago and found that they were about two percent more dense than the standard conditions for a given altitude.

At Tom's suggestion, the effects of moisture on the placard were considered in the original analysis.  Believe it or not, there is information online about the effects of moisture on falling objects.  I'll comment on this further in the forthcoming analysis.

Yes - my source left some source material also:


AVAILABLE RESOURCES ABOUT FALLING PLATES/CARDS

"Chaotic dynamics of falling disks", Field and buds, avail at
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Actual doc URL:
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Cornell News re. the falling paper:
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LiveScience article:  You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Z. Jane Wang's Analysis of transitions between fluttering, tumbling and steady
descent of falling cards:

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Her research group site where multiple docs are avail:
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re. Falling Paper:
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Unsteady Aerodynamics of .... plates
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and:

[PDF]Free-Fall Rotation and Aerodynamic Motion of Rectangular Plates
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by AC Bustamante - ‎1968 - ‎Cited by 2 - ‎Related articles
Sandia Laboratories, Albuquerque ... The aerodynamic motion of rectangular plates observed in 18 free- fall drop tests is analyzed and described. In most of the drops, the plates autorotated; the autorotation was independent of the plates'.   

The above seems to have been taken down but I will send you a copy if you want it. Jane Wang's Analysis above comes highly recommended.
 
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 02:18:58 AM by georger »
 

Offline Tom Kaye

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1771 on: April 15, 2019, 04:00:28 AM »

We should also probably consider the effects of rain pushing the card to the ground with additional force etc.

Tom
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1772 on: April 15, 2019, 06:41:03 AM »
The card was damaged complicating things further. you could put the plane to the west end of the airway and still be in the ballpark.

It's likely Cooper tore it off the door in frustration. I'm going to make a card that will match the one found and see if it reacts any different. I doubt the terminal would of caused the damage or the force of exit?
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 06:47:15 AM by Shutter »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1773 on: April 15, 2019, 06:54:22 AM »
I don't think the card could get iced either. wasn't cold enough at altitude where the rain would be. the cold temps were above the clouds.
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1774 on: April 15, 2019, 03:51:15 PM »
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I don't think the card could get iced either. wasn't cold enough at altitude where the rain would be. the cold temps were above the clouds.

Ive lost track of where they reported icing but they did ... is that in the same time frame as aft stair light going on  and the card being torn off .. in the Toutle area?
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 03:52:28 PM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1775 on: April 15, 2019, 04:00:41 PM »
I know it's on the transcripts over Oregon. can't remember where else. I don't think the card has time since it's not at the same altitude for long periods. it's falling. if they were above the clouds as they should of been they shouldn't of had an icing issue...they might of been skirting on them, don't know....

since the card was so thin perhaps it could of iced up......
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 04:01:43 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1776 on: April 15, 2019, 04:04:14 PM »
I thought the icing became an issue when they climbed over 10K to clear the Donner Pass area over to Reno.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

RFK
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1777 on: April 15, 2019, 04:08:20 PM »
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I thought the icing became an issue when they climbed over 10K to clear the Donner Pass area over to Reno.


was way before that...I'll find it momentarily...I believe they discussed it just past Portland.
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1778 on: April 15, 2019, 04:14:25 PM »
9:28 which is just past Eugene they report "Engine anti-icing on for appreciable length of time, wing AI on intermittently"
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1779 on: April 15, 2019, 04:36:50 PM »
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9:28 which is just past Eugene they report "Engine anti-icing on for appreciable length of time, wing AI on intermittently"

Thanks. OK, I think this is much to do about nothing. The placard at Toutle cannot be used to fix the flight path at Portland because there are just too many variables/unknowns involved. I think the most that can be done is to prove the plane was inside V23 as it passed near Toutle and that is about all that can ever be proved.
 
 
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Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1780 on: April 15, 2019, 05:38:29 PM »
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9:28 which is just past Eugene they report "Engine anti-icing on for appreciable length of time, wing AI on intermittently"

Thanks. OK, I think this is much to do about nothing. The placard at Toutle cannot be used to fix the flight path at Portland because there are just too many variables/unknowns involved. I think the most that can be done is to prove the plane was inside V23 as it passed near Toutle and that is about all that can ever be proved.
 

I absolutely disagree with this assessment.

The atmosphere that winter night was measured. It is going to have been relatively stable and consistent in the sense that it's not like the type of purely erratic weather behavior experienced during the summer heating periods that spawn tornadoes and other violent weather. Therefore, anything, even a basketball, dropped from 10,000 feet up is going to take a somewhat predictable path downward.

It is not necessary to determine precisely where the jet was--although that would be nice. Rather, all you have to focus on is the likelihood that the placard separated from the jet near the FBI's flight path. If you can walk away relatively certain that the jet should have been removed from the placard by several miles that is enough to suggest that the FBI flight path is incorrect.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

RFK
 

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1781 on: April 15, 2019, 05:46:19 PM »
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9:28 which is just past Eugene they report "Engine anti-icing on for appreciable length of time, wing AI on intermittently"

Thanks. OK, I think this is much to do about nothing. The placard at Toutle cannot be used to fix the flight path at Portland because there are just too many variables/unknowns involved. I think the most that can be done is to prove the plane was inside V23 as it passed near Toutle and that is about all that can ever be proved.
 

I absolutely disagree with this assessment.

The atmosphere that winter night was measured. It is going to have been relatively stable and consistent in the sense that it's not like the type of purely erratic weather behavior experienced during the summer heating periods that spawn tornadoes and other violent weather. Therefore, anything, even a basketball, dropped from 10,000 feet up is going to take a somewhat predictable path downward.

It is not necessary to determine precisely where the jet was--although that would be nice. Rather, all you have to focus on is the likelihood that the placard separated from the jet near the FBI's flight path. If you can walk away relatively certain that the jet should have been removed from the placard by several miles that is enough to suggest that the FBI flight path is incorrect.

Baloney. a basketball was not dropped from 305.  :rofl:  Come up with some other fantastical metaphor in Cooper lore.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 05:48:18 PM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1782 on: April 15, 2019, 06:13:47 PM »
I don't think a basketball would be the best thing to argue with  8)


.
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1783 on: April 15, 2019, 06:20:47 PM »
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Baloney. a basketball was not dropped from 305.  :rofl:  Come up with some other fantastical metaphor in Cooper lore.

Actually, I'll flip this around to you:

Name a single item that can free-fall from 10,000 feet up and not be affected by the surrounding atmosphere it's falling through. Even sound and light itself will be impacted to some degree as they make there way to the surface.

Yet, the placard is somehow immune? It is a worthless endeavor to attempt to learn something from where it was discovered? We should just give up because it's too hard?
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

RFK
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1784 on: April 15, 2019, 06:26:15 PM »
Well, I would have to test them vs tell you what could or couldn't drop at any given direction or spot? you, me, everyone here has no idea when and where the card dropped. you, me, and everyone here has no idea how long it has been in the location found. we can guess but that doesn't mean it's a fact.