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It's not that they believe the path is miles off. They are trying to find a way to pinpoint further using the existing path.

Exactly.

Except if you get sucked in by ELVIS you will wind up believing the Cooper hijacking involved twenty camels being sold to Iraq at below market prices, all to forstal global warming in Seattle, in case residents of Seattle should ever want to vacation is Israel! The plot to end all plots.   

Georger, You are the one putting out the BS (or is it CS?).  You haven't come up with a single rational explanation to justify your claims about the validity of the FBI flight path.

Deny and deflect and then claim you are not doing either one.  I'll bet you are on a short list for a presidential cabinet appointment.

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It's not that they believe the path is miles off. They are trying to find a way to pinpoint further using the existing path.

Exactly.

Except if you get sucked in by ELVIS you will wind up believing the Cooper hijacking involved twenty camels being sold to Iraq at below market prices, all to forstal global warming in Seattle, in case residents of Seattle should ever want to vacation is Israel! The plot to end all plots.   

Georger, You are the one putting out the BS (or is it CS?).  You haven't come up with a single rational explanation to justify your claims about the validity of the FBI flight path.

Deny and deflect and then claim you are not doing either one.  I'll bet you are on a short list for a presidential cabinet appointment.

Specifically what!? Be specific for a change?

Since you wont be specific let me be specific! Quote:

Eric,, EU wrote
“It is noteworthy that in August of 1972 the FBI reviewed the NORJAK file which led to some things including what they termed “a more accurate method of plotting of radar data of the NORJAK flight using a computer.” Additionally, they said a “new search area” was plotted and searched with negative results.
SAGE? Why the uncertainty?”

REPLY BY FLYJACK:

Your answer is in the files… they used a more accurate method for plotting the SAGE data, from a 1 mile error to 1/2 mile.
FBI FILE PART 30 P 10802
Re: Seattle airtel to the Bureau, 2/7/73.
SEARCH AREA AND COURSE
In attempt to determine the accuracy of the first search area, the following was learned:
The first search area was calculated using a system of plotting known as “GEOREF” (i.e. Geographical Reference) which has a plotting error of plus or minus one mile. A new system using latitude and longitude has a plotting error of plus or minus 1/2 mile. Using the new system, ___________ Northwest Orient Airlines ________ plotted a new course for the Norjak airplane and a new search area based on the new course. The new search area is partially outside the first area.
It is felt that if Unsub’s parachute opened, he is no longer in the southwest Washington area, but if his parachute did not open, he would be in a corridor along the flight path. The time of jump is known, and an area approximately one mile by seven represents the area Unsub. would have landed in if his parachute did not open.
Seattle Division is currently making arrangements to search that portion of the above described area not previously searched.

Conclusion:  a plotting error of plus or minus one half (1/2) mile ... does not change a flight path! Sorry dude. 

Its not that I want the FBI flight path to be "thee flight path" - it simply appears to be what it is! And until you and Jughead ELVIS can come up with something actually better, go fish and keep engaging in ridiculous attacks which border on senility! 

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It's not that they believe the path is miles off. They are trying to find a way to pinpoint further using the existing path.

Exactly.

Except if you get sucked in by ELVIS you will wind up believing the Cooper hijacking involved twenty camels being sold to Iraq at below market prices, all to forstal global warming in Seattle, in case residents of Seattle should ever want to vacation is Israel! The plot to end all plots.   

Georger, You are the one putting out the BS (or is it CS?).  You haven't come up with a single rational explanation to justify your claims about the validity of the FBI flight path.

Deny and deflect and then claim you are not doing either one.  I'll bet you are on a short list for a presidential cabinet appointment.

Specifically what!? Be specific for a change?

Since you wont be specific let me be specific! Quote:

Eric,, EU wrote
“It is noteworthy that in August of 1972 the FBI reviewed the NORJAK file which led to some things including what they termed “a more accurate method of plotting of radar data of the NORJAK flight using a computer.” Additionally, they said a “new search area” was plotted and searched with negative results.
SAGE? Why the uncertainty?”

REPLY BY FLYJACK:

Your answer is in the files… they used a more accurate method for plotting the SAGE data, from a 1 mile error to 1/2 mile.
FBI FILE PART 30 P 10802
Re: Seattle airtel to the Bureau, 2/7/73.
SEARCH AREA AND COURSE
In attempt to determine the accuracy of the first search area, the following was learned:
The first search area was calculated using a system of plotting known as “GEOREF” (i.e. Geographical Reference) which has a plotting error of plus or minus one mile. A new system using latitude and longitude has a plotting error of plus or minus 1/2 mile. Using the new system, ___________ Northwest Orient Airlines ________ plotted a new course for the Norjak airplane and a new search area based on the new course. The new search area is partially outside the first area.
It is felt that if Unsub’s parachute opened, he is no longer in the southwest Washington area, but if his parachute did not open, he would be in a corridor along the flight path. The time of jump is known, and an area approximately one mile by seven represents the area Unsub. would have landed in if his parachute did not open.
Seattle Division is currently making arrangements to search that portion of the above described area not previously searched.
 

Okay, let's be specific.  The above indicates that the if Cooper was a no-pull, he would have landed in a corridor along the flight path that was "approximately one mile by seven (statute miles?)".  In and off itself, this statement is wildly inaccurate.

It is a given that as a no-pull, Cooper would have landed along the flight path.  Hopefully, by this point in time the members of this site are in agreement that neither Cooper nor the placard would have landed upwind of the flight path.  If you can't understand this point then don't bother reading further.

The standard accepted values for a typical sky diver in a stable spread position is that he will be descending at about 120 MPH at sea level if he is a no-pull.  Also, if the same sky diver is descending head first he will be doing about 180 MPH at sea level if he is a no-pull.  While I haven't bothered to check it out, my guess is that a tumbling sky diver will be doing somewhere between these two values under the same conditions.  At higher altitudes, the descent rates will be greater.

To keep things simple, lets assume that the airliner was two statute miles (10,560 feet) above sea level when Cooper jumped.  From charts that I remember seeing somewhere, at the 225 MPH speed that the airliner was probably traveling when Cooper jumped, his forward motion would have been reduced to zero in about 1500 feet and he would also have been about 1500 feet below the airliner's flight path at that point.  His descent path would then have been straight down with respect to the local air mass (the winds aloft were moving the air mass horizontally).

With a vertical descent rate of 120 MPH, Cooper would have been on the ground and dead in about one minute.  With a vertical descent rate of 180 MPH, Cooper would have been on the ground and dead in about 40 seconds.

Assuming that the airliner had a 30 MPH headwind that was 45 degrees off the flight path, that would be a 21 MPH wind component blowing the sky diver back down the flight path and a 21 MPH wind component perpendicular to the flight path.

If Cooper was descending at 120 MPH for one minute, he would have been blown about 1850 feet back down the flight path and the same distance perpendicular and downwind to the flight path.  If Cooper was descending at 180 MPH for 40 seconds, he would have been blown about 1235 feet back down the flight path and the same distance perpendicular and downwind to the flight path.

So the ground "impact zone" for Cooper as a no-pull is basically as follows:

     1.  Along the flight path, from about 350 feet before his jump point to about 265 feet after his jump point.  This is a total distance of about 615 feet.

     2.  Perpendicular to the flight path, from about 1235 feet to 1850 feet from the flight path which is also about 615 feet.

     3.  In reality, the impact zone is a parallelogram with the end points as indicated above.

The whole point of the above is that the ground impact area for Cooper as a no-pull would have been quite small.  The one mile by seven mile estimate is grossly overstated.

As always, if better information about the flight path is released then the Cooper no-pull ground impact estimate can be refined.       



 

It's all wrong...the path is way off...it's not worth the trouble anymore...

I'm still waiting on the explanation as to why the Air Force, apparently utilizing SAGE (according to whom, I've yet to learn), needed flight data recorder information from 305 and radio transcript information from 305, Flight Ops and Seattle Center, to plot the flight path. Moreover, why SAGE would require any adjustment. After all, it could direct firepower directly to an enemy target in real time. Being 1/2 mile or 1 mile off isn't going to cut it. Oh, and why there apparently aren't time stamps on this SAGE radar data?

"Why was the FDR used?"---The FBI's goal wasn't to create a flight path, the goal was to create a search grid where they could look for Cooper. I'm sure if the goal was creating a flight path that could stand up to radical skepticism forty years after the fact we'd have more of the original documentation. In reality, creating a search zone was a practical matter involving finding the general area the plane was flying, the apparent time of the jump, and the weather conditions. Why the FDR? As we've read from FBI docs, the FDR was examined pinpoint *The Timing* of the jump. Same with the radio transcripts, these sources provided relevant data in creating a search zone.

"Being 1/2 mile or 1 mile off isn't going to cut it"---Sure it would. There is a lot of literature on defense against strategic bombing in the jet age. Getting fighters within a mile of a strategic bomber should result in an engagement that the bomber can't win.

"why there apparently aren't time stamps on this SAGE radar data?"---We don't have the original source of the data, we have the resultant map that was used to create the search grids that the FBI invested thousands of man hours searching. On that map? Time stamps.

This was directed at Georger but I'd like a crack at it:

"What does an incorrect FBI flight path look like?"---Any flight path is incorrect. The flight path can't be reproduced perfectly, nor can it be represented on a two dimensional map perfectly. In fact, the difficulties in representing the curvature of the Earth on a flat piece of paper is a well known problem in cartography. ANY MAP of the flight path is going to be wrong, however the FBI believed the one they had was useful... Because they used it a lot.    ---If you're suggesting the map we have isn't just wrong, but "very wrong" then I would need an explanation about where this map came from and why the FBI even had it...And why they used it to search for Cooper.

"...the evidence that is found after 47 years is way off the flight path?"---The Tina Bar money location is downstream from where the plane crossed the Columbia. So... not the wrong flight path. The placard? Recovered years after the fact and the location was not marked at the moment it was found. We can't be sure of its exact location when it was found, let alone where it originally landed. Who knows how, when and why it ended up where it ended up (much like the rest of the trash that floats around the troposphere). It's anomalous, but you don't conjecture a radical departure from primary sources based on a single outlier.

Quote

I'm still waiting on the explanation as to why the Air Force, apparently utilizing SAGE (according to whom, I've yet to learn), needed flight data recorder information from 305 and radio transcript information from 305, Flight Ops and Seattle Center, to plot the flight path. Moreover, why SAGE would require any adjustment. After all, it could direct firepower directly to an enemy target in real time. Being 1/2 mile or 1 mile off isn't going to cut it. Oh, and why there apparently aren't time stamps on this SAGE radar data?

"Why was the FDR used?"---The FBI's goal wasn't to create a flight path, the goal was to create a search grid where they could look for Cooper. I'm sure if the goal was creating a flight path that could stand up to radical skepticism forty years after the fact we'd have more of the original documentation. In reality, creating a search zone was a practical matter involving finding the general area the plane was flying, the apparent time of the jump, and the weather conditions. Why the FDR? As we've read from FBI docs, the FDR was examined pinpoint *The Timing* of the jump. Same with the radio transcripts, these sources provided relevant data in creating a search zone.

"Being 1/2 mile or 1 mile off isn't going to cut it"---Sure it would. There is a lot of literature on defense against strategic bombing in the jet age. Getting fighters within a mile of a strategic bomber should result in an engagement that the bomber can't win.

"why there apparently aren't time stamps on this SAGE radar data?"---We don't have the original source of the data, we have the resultant map that was used to create the search grids that the FBI invested thousands of man hours searching. On that map? Time stamps.

This was directed at Georger but I'd like a crack at it:

"What does an incorrect FBI flight path look like?"---Any flight path is incorrect. The flight path can't be reproduced perfectly, nor can it be represented on a two dimensional map perfectly. In fact, the difficulties in representing the curvature of the Earth on a flat piece of paper is a well known problem in cartography. ANY MAP of the flight path is going to be wrong, however the FBI believed the one they had was useful... Because they used it a lot.    ---If you're suggesting the map we have isn't just wrong, but "very wrong" then I would need an explanation about where this map came from and why the FBI even had it...And why they used it to search for Cooper.

"...the evidence that is found after 47 years is way off the flight path?"---The Tina Bar money location is downstream from where the plane crossed the Columbia. So... not the wrong flight path. The placard? Recovered years after the fact and the location was not marked at the moment it was found. We can't be sure of its exact location when it was found, let alone where it originally landed. Who knows how, when and why it ended up where it ended up (much like the rest of the trash that floats around the troposphere). It's anomalous, but you don't conjecture a radical departure from primary sources based on a single outlier.

well said.

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Quote

I'm still waiting on the explanation as to why the Air Force, apparently utilizing SAGE (according to whom, I've yet to learn), needed flight data recorder information from 305 and radio transcript information from 305, Flight Ops and Seattle Center, to plot the flight path. Moreover, why SAGE would require any adjustment. After all, it could direct firepower directly to an enemy target in real time. Being 1/2 mile or 1 mile off isn't going to cut it. Oh, and why there apparently aren't time stamps on this SAGE radar data?

"Why was the FDR used?"---The FBI's goal wasn't to create a flight path, the goal was to create a search grid where they could look for Cooper. I'm sure if the goal was creating a flight path that could stand up to radical skepticism forty years after the fact we'd have more of the original documentation. In reality, creating a search zone was a practical matter involving finding the general area the plane was flying, the apparent time of the jump, and the weather conditions. Why the FDR? As we've read from FBI docs, the FDR was examined pinpoint *The Timing* of the jump. Same with the radio transcripts, these sources provided relevant data in creating a search zone.

"Being 1/2 mile or 1 mile off isn't going to cut it"---Sure it would. There is a lot of literature on defense against strategic bombing in the jet age. Getting fighters within a mile of a strategic bomber should result in an engagement that the bomber can't win.

"why there apparently aren't time stamps on this SAGE radar data?"---We don't have the original source of the data, we have the resultant map that was used to create the search grids that the FBI invested thousands of man hours searching. On that map? Time stamps.

This was directed at Georger but I'd like a crack at it:

"What does an incorrect FBI flight path look like?"---Any flight path is incorrect. The flight path can't be reproduced perfectly, nor can it be represented on a two dimensional map perfectly. In fact, the difficulties in representing the curvature of the Earth on a flat piece of paper is a well known problem in cartography. ANY MAP of the flight path is going to be wrong, however the FBI believed the one they had was useful... Because they used it a lot.    ---If you're suggesting the map we have isn't just wrong, but "very wrong" then I would need an explanation about where this map came from and why the FBI even had it...And why they used it to search for Cooper.

"...the evidence that is found after 47 years is way off the flight path?"---The Tina Bar money location is downstream from where the plane crossed the Columbia. So... not the wrong flight path. The placard? Recovered years after the fact and the location was not marked at the moment it was found. We can't be sure of its exact location when it was found, let alone where it originally landed. Who knows how, when and why it ended up where it ended up (much like the rest of the trash that floats around the troposphere). It's anomalous, but you don't conjecture a radical departure from primary sources based on a single outlier.

Andrade,

Here is your first mistake.  What is the basis for your statement that the airliner crossed the Columbia River upstream of Tina Bar?  This seems like a logical conclusion but there is no data to support it.  While it is a given that the money at Tina Bar didn't come from down stream, it is pure conjecture by whoever dreamed up the so-called FBI flight path and I trust that you are of some of the problems with that flight path.

Here is some good news and bad news.  First the good news.  It is true that no two dimensional map can accurately represent anything except a very small area on a spherical body.  The bad news is that I used an online program for celestial navigation in determining the flight path that I have written about in my posts over the last 10 years on this subject.  And I used the GPS coordinates for the navigation aids and intersections.  So there is no basis for criticizing the flight path based on a two dimensional paper map.

It is also a given that the earth is not really spherical in the first place.  But celestial navigation using the appropriate GPS coordinates is as accurate as anything can be in this day and age.

You say the FBI wasn't trying to determine the flight path?  That they were just trying to determine a location to search for Cooper?  A good place to start would be determining the flight path.  Otherwise, they may as well have started their search during happy hour at the nearest bar and grill to the FBI's Portland office.   

All metaphors aside - as a historical note, literally nobody jumped up and suggested the flight path be moved after the money find in 1980; only Himmelsbach tried that in recommending the plane had flown down the Washougal and the Washougal was responsible for money being on Tina Bar!

So 99 you are now in the same boat with Himmelsbach, only in the reverse direction.  History tends to repeat itself.