Author Topic: Flight Path And Related Issues  (Read 185256 times)

Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1800 on: April 17, 2019, 03:49:54 PM »
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If what Georger said is true, that pilot Andy Anderson didn't record the exact time of the "bump," then the case is totally reliant on the recollections of the pilots as to when they thought he bailed out.  And with all the confusion going on in the cockpit, the exact time will never be known.  The "missing minutes" are the key to Cooper's landing area.


I think it's all in the timing. I have flown the path from Seattle to Portland. it can be done in the time frame they give. other options are being looked at. the money location must be some sort of clue in the path of the plane, or the jump time. if they are off on the timing, lots of water is around the jump zone. Robert99 has a pretty good theory, but we need some more to go on. perhaps he will chime in and discuss it in his words.

The money find at Tina Bar is the key to solving what happened to Cooper.  If sufficiently accurate information on the flight path location becomes available, it will quite likely be possible to give a very small area for Cooper's landing (or impact).  By small area, I mean quite a bit less than one-half of a square mile.  It is also quite likely that a meaningful statement can be made on Cooper's condition immediately after he returns to earth (dead or alive?).

The unique geographical and topographical conditions that exist in the Tina Bar area are such that severe limitations exist on what the flight path had to be, and whether Cooper was a pull or no-pull, in order for the money to get to Tina Bar.  And if accurate flight path information, such as that in the un-redacted Seattle ATC transcripts, becomes available, I will be delighted to go out on a limb and amplify on the above.

Shutter is absolute right about the further south the airliner got from the Woodland area, the more water it would be flying over.  If the flight crew bypassed Portland on the west side, the airliner would essentially be almost directly over the Columbia River as it passed Tina Bar.

In addition, new tests on the money could be run to help verify a specific scenario. These are tests beyond the scope and capability of what Tom was able to do -

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« Last Edit: April 17, 2019, 04:01:24 PM by georger »
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1801 on: April 17, 2019, 05:10:24 PM »
I'm not experienced a lot with plotting maps but it appears the plotting was done in red ink. black X's/crosses seem to alert those about certain events. 8:05 position, as well as the 8:10 position. the plots at the turn toward Portland might just be inaccurate plots. Hominid claims scratch lines can be see with the proper software. I haven't tried anything yet to validate that assumption.

I'm guessing the black X's/crosses were added after the map was made. red one's are probably underneath. why they put them in the two intersections in black? I don't know. they might of discussed the possibility of that route. you would tend to believe the same pen would of been used at it's conception. they have had that map for decades and who knows how many people used it or marked on it for any given reason. we do that today with photo's and maps. some are wrong and could imply the wrong idea when someone finds them online.

Making the minute marks in red and connecting them in black makes sense so you can see the marks. who ever made the red X's/crosses didn't follow the path. they are straight (up/down/left/right) who ever did the intersection markings followed the airways instead of making them straight. if you follow...
« Last Edit: April 17, 2019, 05:17:00 PM by Shutter »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1802 on: April 17, 2019, 05:17:06 PM »
I have obviously been very vocal about my belief that the FBI Flight Path is wrong.

With that in mind, I have considered how this is possible and where the error originated. This got me thinking about a few things.

First, it seems universal that everyone agrees with the flight up to the Maylay intersection.

Second, where R99 and I begin to disagree with the FBI’s Flight Path starts with the Maylay intersection and the turn made at that spot.

Third, it seems that everyone universally agrees with the flight path from Canby down to Reno.

Simply put, the area in question—for R99 and me— is the portion from Maylay to Canby.

I have a theory and here it goes:

The FBI Flight Path shows a quite sharp turn at Maylay that ultimately brings the jet over the V23 center line—in other words, east of the V23 center line.

Perhaps this is where an error occurred. Perhaps the jet didn’t make such a sharp turn at Maylay and actually turned just enough to fly parallel to the V23 center line during the first segment after the turn—a nautical mile or so to the west. Then going forward everything else is accurate in terms of the number of degrees that the jet turns as its direction changes.

With this in mind, I mocked up a map (below) that depicts the FBI Flight Path with the blue line and depicts my Theorized Flight Path with the yellow line.

It’s interesting that the Theorized Flight Path brings the jet to a point that could account for the drift of the placard, brings the jet to the west of Tena Bar (noted on the map with a pin drop), and lines up with the unexplained red Xs on the FBI map.

The portion over the Portland area is obviously not exactly the same; however, in both maps the jet does appear to fly a little bit more freely as it lines up and heads toward Canby.

Of course I realize this is a pretty bold theory. But, it may explain where the error (if there was one) originated.
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Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1803 on: April 17, 2019, 05:51:37 PM »
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I have obviously been very vocal about my belief that the FBI Flight Path is wrong.

With that in mind, I have considered how this is possible and where the error originated. This got me thinking about a few things.

First, it seems universal that everyone agrees with the flight up to the Maylay intersection.

Second, where R99 and I begin to disagree with the FBI’s Flight Path starts with the Maylay intersection and the turn made at that spot.

Third, it seems that everyone universally agrees with the flight path from Canby down to Reno.

Simply put, the area in question—for R99 and me— is the portion from Maylay to Canby.

I have a theory and here it goes:

The FBI Flight Path shows a quite sharp turn at Maylay that ultimately brings the jet over the V23 center line—in other words, east of the V23 center line.

Perhaps this is where an error occurred. Perhaps the jet didn’t make such a sharp turn at Maylay and actually turned just enough to fly parallel to the V23 center line during the first segment after the turn—a nautical mile or so to the west. Then going forward everything else is accurate in terms of the number of degrees that the jet turns as its direction changes.

With this in mind, I mocked up a map (below) that depicts the FBI Flight Path with the blue line and depicts my Theorized Flight Path with the yellow line.

It’s interesting that the Theorized Flight Path brings the jet to a point that could account for the drift of the placard, brings the jet to the west of Tena Bar (noted on the map with a pin drop), and lines up with the unexplained red Xs on the FBI map.

The portion over the Portland area is obviously not exactly the same; however, in both maps the jet does appear to fly a little bit more freely as it lines up and heads toward Canby.

Of course I realize this is a pretty bold theory. But, it may explain where the error (if there was one) originated.

Yours shall be known as the Elvis flight path!  It is laughable. No doubt you intend to SELL IT TO YOUR LAST DYING BREATH!
« Last Edit: April 17, 2019, 05:52:28 PM by georger »
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1804 on: April 17, 2019, 06:19:19 PM »
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Yours shall be known as the Elvis flight path!  It is laughable. No doubt you intend to SELL IT TO YOUR LAST DYING BREATH!

And so it shall be known from this point forward, the Elvis Flight Path.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline 377

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1805 on: April 17, 2019, 06:39:08 PM »
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377
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1806 on: April 17, 2019, 07:13:22 PM »
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377

I see this and I think, "what a shame."

Like N467US, it should have been better preserved.
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline andrade1812

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1807 on: April 18, 2019, 12:55:43 AM »
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I'm not experienced a lot with plotting maps but it appears the plotting was done in red ink. black X's/crosses seem to alert those about certain events. 8:05 position, as well as the 8:10 position. the plots at the turn toward Portland might just be inaccurate plots. Hominid claims scratch lines can be see with the proper software. I haven't tried anything yet to validate that assumption.

I'm guessing the black X's/crosses were added after the map was made. red one's are probably underneath. why they put them in the two intersections in black? I don't know. they might of discussed the possibility of that route. you would tend to believe the same pen would of been used at it's conception. they have had that map for decades and who knows how many people used it or marked on it for any given reason. we do that today with photo's and maps. some are wrong and could imply the wrong idea when someone finds them online.

Making the minute marks in red and connecting them in black makes sense so you can see the marks. who ever made the red X's/crosses didn't follow the path. they are straight (up/down/left/right) who ever did the intersection markings followed the airways instead of making them straight. if you follow...

I bit the bullet and purchased a high quality full-sized poster of the map. What a difference, it's much easier to see all the markings. It's clear that the red marks are perfectly perpendicular, one horizontal mark and one vertical mark. This map was done on a drafting table (or a similar setup) by someone using a t square and triangle. They were probably working from lat&long data rather than trying to match up to a photo of the SAGE radar screen. There just isn't a lot of room for error here. If the map maker was using a readout of radar data, then we can't "massage" the map more than the +-1 mile we've been told about before.
 
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Offline georger

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1808 on: April 18, 2019, 01:25:31 AM »
The case at hand is who drew this thing? R99, Ulis, ??? ? What exactly is this thing supposed to represent and by what authority? I added the red line which is an approximation of the theoretical straight line btwn Malay and Canby central to R99's west path ... if that is still his west path?   :-\
 

Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1809 on: April 18, 2019, 05:02:22 AM »
I don't see any sharp turn at the Malay intersection. it fly's past it. I'm not sure where you got data thinking everyone believes the path up to the Malay intersection. I see a lot of questions surrounding the timing vs the wrong path by different people. then you have some believing the plane was further east.

You read reports of people hearing a loud plane around the time of the supposed jump believing the plane was flying lower than 10k. I think it could of been the fighters making that noise. no reports from anyone on the west side of either Vancouver or Portland. 302's state the fighters were 5 miles behind them and noted the sudden changes in the flight.

If the jump zone was further away from a major airport I could see a lot of room for error. they were on top of PDX  basically.
 

Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1810 on: April 18, 2019, 08:49:32 AM »
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I don't see any sharp turn at the Malay intersection. it fly's past it. I'm not sure where you got data thinking everyone believes the path up to the Malay intersection. I see a lot of questions surrounding the timing vs the wrong path by different people. then you have some believing the plane was further east.

You read reports of people hearing a loud plane around the time of the supposed jump believing the plane was flying lower than 10k. I think it could of been the fighters making that noise. no reports from anyone on the west side of either Vancouver or Portland. 302's state the fighters were 5 miles behind them and noted the sudden changes in the flight.

If the jump zone was further away from a major airport I could see a lot of room for error. they were on top of PDX  basically.

Let's unpack the above:

First, there was a turn at Malay. Now when I say Malay I understand that it wasn't literally at the intersection, rather it was around the airport. My point is that this is where the veracity of the FBI Flight Path comes into question for R99 and me. I am unaware of anyone questioning the flight path leading up to Maylay with the exception of the Reca folks who put the jet over Cle Elum.

Moreover, this turn at Maylay is sharp in the sense that it brings the jet from the west side of the V23 center line to the east of the V23 center line. The Elvis Flight Path theory simply has the jet turn at Maylay and remain west of the V23 center line as it flies parallel to the V23 center line.

Second, I am unaware of any fighters actually having the jet insight over Washington State. I have heard that they couldn't follow it because it was travelling too slow. Of course, this is ridiculous. The fighters are perfectly capable of intercepting slow flying aircraft, even as slow as a Cessna 152. Does anyone have anything that verifies that the McChord fighters had a visual on 305 over Washington State? If so, how does this jive with my understanding that NORAD nixed Major Dawson's idea of the 106s flying close to 305?

Third, what sudden turn to the east are we talking about that is followed by a turn to the right? There is nothing like this on the FBI Flight Path. In fact, after the turn at Maylay the jet as depicted as making several subtle turns to the west as it flies a large arc pattern before it turns east to travel center line V23. This turn occurs at 8:12.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2019, 09:26:13 AM by EU »
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline EU

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1811 on: April 18, 2019, 08:54:57 AM »
By the way Georger, the Elvis Flight Path map was drawn by me. That should be clear from the original post I made. R99 had nothing to do with it.

Under what authority do I draw the Elvis Flight Path? Uhhhhh, it's just a map designed to illustrate a theory. Perhaps, just perhaps, it's actually correct.

Cheers!
Some men see things as they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

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Offline Robert99

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1812 on: April 18, 2019, 12:09:20 PM »
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I'm not experienced a lot with plotting maps but it appears the plotting was done in red ink. black X's/crosses seem to alert those about certain events. 8:05 position, as well as the 8:10 position. the plots at the turn toward Portland might just be inaccurate plots. Hominid claims scratch lines can be see with the proper software. I haven't tried anything yet to validate that assumption.

I'm guessing the black X's/crosses were added after the map was made. red one's are probably underneath. why they put them in the two intersections in black? I don't know. they might of discussed the possibility of that route. you would tend to believe the same pen would of been used at it's conception. they have had that map for decades and who knows how many people used it or marked on it for any given reason. we do that today with photo's and maps. some are wrong and could imply the wrong idea when someone finds them online.

Making the minute marks in red and connecting them in black makes sense so you can see the marks. who ever made the red X's/crosses didn't follow the path. they are straight (up/down/left/right) who ever did the intersection markings followed the airways instead of making them straight. if you follow...

I bit the bullet and purchased a high quality full-sized poster of the map. What a difference, it's much easier to see all the markings. It's clear that the red marks are perfectly perpendicular, one horizontal mark and one vertical mark. This map was done on a drafting table (or a similar setup) by someone using a t square and triangle. They were probably working from lat&long data rather than trying to match up to a photo of the SAGE radar screen. There just isn't a lot of room for error here. If the map maker was using a readout of radar data, then we can't "massage" the map more than the +-1 mile we've been told about before.

This whole map was probably prepared some time after the hijacking and by persons unknown at the present time.

It is highly unlikely that USAF personnel prepared the FBI flight path since the 302s state that the USAF personnel turned over "tapes" and not "maps".  Some else had to find a machine to read the tapes and then do the analysis to determine the flight path.

While I may be slightly prejudiced, I think the USAF personnel would have done a better job.  They would certainly not have the airliner traveling three nautical miles in one minute and then traveling six nautical miles in the very next minute.

Could you possibly post the high quality map of the Portland area, even if you have to do it in several segments? 
« Last Edit: April 18, 2019, 12:11:02 PM by Robert99 »
 

Offline andrade1812

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1813 on: April 18, 2019, 12:20:46 PM »
Haven't mentioned it yet but, Hi Robert!, good to have you back.

I can't scan the poster, at least not with my equipment, as I made it several times larger than the original the scan was based on. I used Sluggo's website as the source material, the scans he had are the best I could find. I might make another one as, according to the poster shop, it could be made even bigger without getting too pixelated.
 
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Offline Shutter

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Re: Flight Path And Related Issues
« Reply #1814 on: April 18, 2019, 01:40:31 PM »
I don't have it handy at the moment but there are 302's stating the map came from the Air Force. it also states that Seattle (Seatac)recording of the path.

 
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